> In real life, I have no idea how this kind of thing gets analyzed, and what kind of uncertainty is involved.

This is similar to what I was trying to get across -- how do we know something this complicated will have only the intended effect that the author is describing?

The comparison to reflectors in space to address climate concerns is a great one - something where a first pass/ back of the envelope makes it seem interesting, but any amount of detail added reveals that we'd have no clue what would happen