Even if they couldn't, why would you limit your analysis to Li-based batteries? It's basic economics that when a resource becomes rarer, it becomes more costly and alternatives spring up. EVs with Sodium batteries are already on the market in China. This whole Lithium fear mongering is such a red herring.
> Solutions possibly lie in exploring other battery chemistries while improving the efficiency of Li extraction.
I'm also going to say that all the car companies, battery companies, and governments in the world probably took six seconds to do basic math before investing trillions of dollars in it.
It doesn't, because that 88,000,000,000 is a lower bound amount of lithium on the planet not an upper bound.
If I count all the apples on the apple tree in my yard, I haven't counted all the apples on the planet. Only the applies I know about. There's probably still more apple trees out there!
That 88,000,000,000 figure also doesn't count any lithium in the oceans. Taking even a small fraction from there would make that 88,000,000,000 seem tiny.
More broadly, this is a class of complaint that you can't see every detail of path and the destination from the very beginning of the road. The solution to that isn't to stand around and complain about it, but _start moving towards the destination_.
A quick google returned this ~63KG
https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla....
Remember peak oil, which was a big panic of some in the 2000s? It turns out that peak production didn't happen overall, but if you look at the original set of "known resources", the peak oil predictions were spot on. Yet we didn't experience huge oil supply shortages because huge expenditures into new fracking tech enables far more resources to be accessed.
We have always loved in a complete abundance of lithium, so we never bothered to look for more resources. Now that we need more, we will find it. It's not a particularly rare element.
Emphasis added from your [3].
Ever think maybe your 88,000,000,000 Kilograms number isn't actually all the lithium on the planet, and maybe there's more undiscovered under the ground? Or do you think all the lithium on the planet was discovered in 2023, and now there won't be any more reserves found?
Strange how this maximum amount of lithium reserves keeps magically growing year over year over year over year. I wonder how it magically appears.
Earth's Lithium deposits.................. 88,000,000,000 Kilograms [2], [3]
@25% Viable for mining.................... 22,000,000,000 Kilograms [2], [3]
Tesla S battery weight.................... 540 Kilograms per car [4]
Lithium weight per Tesla S battery........ 63 Kilograms per battery [4]
Max Tesla S (global) production possible.. 349,206,349 units (See Edit below)
Number of automobiles running in the USA.. 102,000,000 units [1]
Number of automobiles running in the World 1,500,000,000 units [5]
So, even if we theoretically assume that the earth's entire known Li reserves are used for EV usage, we cannot replace more than 25% of the currently running cars in the world.
So, we have a bigger problem ahead of us (over the next decade) that will act as an opposing force against EV penetration and replacement of the IC engine.
Solutions possibly lie in exploring other battery chemistries while improving the efficiency of Li extraction.
Edit: As some of the comments below point out, the Li content in a Tesla Model S battery is approx. 63 Kg. That makes the Max Tesla S (production) possible to 349 million units. So, in theory, one could replace all IC engines in automobiles plying in the USA. That then leaves the rest of the world. So, the problem still remains.
[1]: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2021/m...
[2]: https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/li...
[3]: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-c...
[4]: https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-weight
[5]: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/the-number-of-cars-wo...