You appear to be trying to imply that because one prominent tech guy (CmdrTaco) pooh-poohed the iPod at its announcement, only for it to become a smash hit, anyone who looks at an announcement and says "I don't think this will do very well" is automatically wrong...? Or something?

There are fairly serious differences between the release of the iPod and the announcement of Facebook's shift to "Meta", and one guy being wrong one time, however famously, does not have any implications for other people being wrong in completely different circumstances, so this feels pointlessly dismissive.

You can make all the predictions you want. Predictions are forward looking, not backwards. Saying your predictions are obviously correct in hindsight is engaging in survivorship bias.

Easy way to prove this is to ask people what the obvious winners and losers will be in the next 5 years, and then see how they've allocated they're investments to that. If you can predict the market so obviously, you'll be rich.

Also, I was right about THAT iPod! 2 years later they got the product right and when people reference this quote, THAT is the product they have in their minds eye.

Good heavens; speak of the Commander and he shall appear.

Didn't even know you were on here!