But yes, it is absolutely the most likely occurrence that an obviously wealthy exec, an older man, was an easy mark for a random mugging gone wrong at the wee hours than some crypto bro plotted an assassination.

"Mugging gone wrong, someone got stabbed" is a very, very common situation. Also note that he lived to receive initial aid and perished on the way to the hospital - it's not like he was shot and stuffed in a car trunk.