Hungary and Turkey can do whatever they want, but the effect of sabotaging the alliance is that they get cut off from US arms deals, maybe even French ones. We have seen this when Turkey bought the S400 from Russia - they got kicked out of the F-35 program. Hungary is still leasing planes from Saab. They will ratify Sweden's NATO membership.
Re:Finland becomes the 31st member of NATO
by alkonaut on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @11:14AM
(#35440985)
Yeah that's completely expected though I imagine. Buying S-400 something as advanced as AA or Fighter jets is basically the same as a long term future military partnership. It's not like buying socks or trucks. And buying such complex equipment from within the alliance comes with the equivalent promise not to share that tech with those who shouldn't have it.
I think in terms of arms deals Saab will benefit a lot from joining NATO. Gripen would likely have sold a lot better the last 15 years if it had been a NATO built plane.
Don't know what to say about SAAB benefiting from Sweden joining NATO. France got their submarine deal with Australlia cancelled and instead they get to sell less subs and some corvettes to Romania. Unlike the F-16, the Rafale and Grippen programs don't have an upgrade path towards 5th gen fighters like the F-35. You need to re-train the pilots on something else emtirely different. The Gripen is very much built for and suited specifically for Sweden, being smaller and able to land on a motorway.
Re:Finland becomes the 31st member of NATO
by alkonaut on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @01:09PM
(#35442800)
I think both that the US will get a 4.5-gen F-16 replacement for “cheaper” flight hours and less complex tasks than F-35. When that happens (I feel it’s when not if at this point) it’s likely some of the F-35 buyers will wonder whether they too should have had multiple tiers of craft. A really small Air Force likely can’t afford fielding and maintaining multiple types of fighter though. So they are stuck with the possibly unnecessarily high flight hour costs.
I also think that dispersed deployment and simpler operation like 20 minute turnaround with a 3 man crew like the Gripen will be something all air forces including the USAF will master. Finland has always done this with their F-18s and they’ll continue to do it with F-35. It’ll be a bit more demanding no doubt, but they’ll make it work.
Last I checked countries apply to join, and the alliance is free to leave. And of course like in any organization if you want to reap the benefits you may want to also accept some of the drawbacks. The most obvious one for a country like Finland probably isn't somehow being under the spell of the US, but rather being in an alliance with Turkey and Hungary, which can be pretty problematic for democratic countries these days.