> Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up.

> > the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women

> > Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up.

> > > the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women

> If you're pulling in divorces from the future, shouldn't the long term rate go down?

The long-term rate appears to be level. This rate is not divorces per year, but divorces per person (or married couple). A level long-term rate with an increased short-term rate means, as said in the paper, that divorces-already-in-planning are just sped up.

If it's true that divorces are being brought forward this means that couples who remain together after the e.g. 1 year mark are stronger, thus you'd expect the long term rate to go down.

I don't understand why that would be the case. With a long-term rate staying stable, either a couple is going to break up, or they're not. Pushing forward the breakups would not alter the long-term rate, just as pushing backward the breakups (as long as they're still within the window observed by the study) doesn't lower the long-term rate.

> That's odd framing.

If it was the men who were, on average, disproportionately divorcing their wives the framing could be reversed. As divorce has costs, the act of divorcing someone indicates that they are worse as a spouse than the alternative.

I had remembered reading that women tend to be less happy in marriages than men, but this appears to be wrong. Still:

> happiness increases when low-quality marriages dissolve—again, that’s true for both men and women.

https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/is_marriage_re...

Divorce can be initiated by either party and the wording in the abstract ("divorce-risk") suggests they're looking at whether divorce happens, regardless of who initiated it. (I can't access the main paper, to verify what they're actually measuring)

The site allows three free downloads, have you reached your limit?

The machine I am on is blocking the download - could be my adblock rule or could be an admin setting, haven't checked.

However, that is besides the point? I find your question in very poor taste and not conducive to discussing the article.

It wasn't meant in poor taste. It was meant to be helpful.