The fed historically does take actions adverse to employment in election years.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2016/08/25/...
The stock market (as measured by SP500) is down only 15% from its all time high, and is currently higher than any point before 2021.
Inflation, however, will reliably kill a presidency. Note that we went through 4 presidents in the 8 years of the 1970s inflation, while the average president in the 40 years afterward served for 8 years. This holds universally across cultures as well - globally, countries like Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany, post-war Eastern Europe, etc. go through rapid regime change during periods of high inflation.
[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/25/few-in-u-s-...
High interest is killing stock market returns.
No administration wants to enter election season with decimated stock market.
Hence, if nothing else, there will be political pressure on FED to lower interest rates to juice up stock market.
Second, some kind of recession is expected by many so if it happens, that will a reason to cut rates.