LIDAR is absolutely the technically superior approach compared to photogrammetry + ML but is cost-prohibitive (in Tesla's view)

Personally, I'll never trust their self-driving product for anything more than lane-keeping unless they incorporate LIDAR

LIDAR would certainly solve the problem of crashes, which is indeed a serious issue.

But I don't see how you could drive with it. It couldn't identify lane markings or exits or traffic lights or cones. And if you can do that well, you should be able to avoid hitting things.

Clearly Tesla hasn't solved that and maybe never will. But adding LIDAR wouldn't really solve the problem.

It's not LIDAR alone it's a combo. The problem of course is that Tesla/Elon is being stubborn and unwilling to put the "expensive" lidar claiming that pictures is enough to work on.

Maybe it is, but not today.

Volvo seems to be getting it right hardware-wise with it's forthcoming EX90 (electric XC90). 250 meter range LIDAR (cleaned by the windshield wipers), 5 radars, 8 cameras and 16 ultrasonic sensors.

That's amazing. Mercedes has the first certified level 3. Only a few states, but the rest will come. Tesla is falling behind due to its hubris.

I also think they haven’t figured out how to do the sensor fusion with the compute available.

their real problem is frame to frame consistency, due to lack of a world model.

this is what Elon talked with Lex a year (or two?) ago. (they mentioned it as how to know you are in a school zone, and remember you are in a school zone, etc)

Sounds like they're working on the world model at least in places. With the removal of the parking sensors, they've started remembering obstructions that are now out of the cameras' vision.

can you be more specific what those deficiencies are?

LIDAR has some issues in rain and snow, and can't read road markings or signs (or make out colours). And it's pretty expensive currently. A combination of LIDAR and cameras is likely what'll end up working best, they complement each other nicely.

Just to nitpick/paint a less absolute picture: Having worked at a couple companies using lidar, you can make out stuff like road markings based on relative brightness (especially if retroreflective paint is used), in ideal conditions, but that's of course not everywhere.

I agree a combo seems like the way forward.

The one that few people think about is that use of LIDAR interferes with other LIDAR. LIDAR works mostly because almost no one is using LIDAR. By contrast, passive optical scales infinitely even if it is more difficult and there is an existence proof that it is possible. Automotive companies view LIDAR as a dead-end even though it works well (in some environments) now.

I see LIDAR self driving vehicles all over the place around Phoenix and Tempe. My Tesla’s autopilot can’t reliably stay on the correct side of the road going through intersections.