Specialization is useful up to a point. But I like my general intelligence, and rather resent its devaluation under your beloved 'free' markets.
We're working on getting AI to do all of those things, yes.
>GPT-3 can't fix your plumbing
GPT-3 might not. But GPT-4 fixed plumbing in a test done by Microsoft Research before it was even publicly released! It's in the "sparks of AGI" paper.
GPT-5 is almost done training now and other language models are already embodied and moving about in the physical space. Your objections are behind the times, and increasingly so.
Near the end:
> If you don’t feel comfortable doing this, you may need to call a plumber.
---
Source: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12712.pdf
Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4
[page 53]
---
The computer is trying to solve a problem. It can tell the human to do anything, one thing at a time, and one line at a time.
PROBLEM: there is water dripping from the kitchen ceiling, and you have to figure out why and fix it ----<|endofprompt|>
Human: The kitchen ceiling is dripping water
Computer: Check to see if there is a bathroom or other water source directly above the kitchen.
Human: Yes, there is a bathroom actually
Computer: Check the bathroom for any signs of water leakage, such as puddles on the floor, water drip ping from the ceiling, or water stains on the walls.
Human: There is a little water on the floor
Computer: Try to identify where the water is coming from. Check the toilet, sink, and bathtub/shower for any leaks.
Human: It is next to the bathtub and the toilet
Computer: Check the seals around the bathtub and toilet to see if they are worn or damaged. If they are, replace them. If they are not, continue investigating other potential sources of the leak.
Human: I can’t see the seal around the toilet, there is a porcelain thing around it. I don’t see any damage in the bathtub seal though
Computer: If you can’t see the seal around the toilet, you may need to remove the porcelain cover to inspect it. If you don’t feel comfortable doing this, you may need to call a plumber.
Human: Ok, I removed it. But I can’t tell if it’s damaged or not
Computer: If you can’t tell, it may be best to replace the seal anyway, just to be sure. If the leak persists after replacing the seal, you will need to continue investigating other potential sources of the leak.
I've seen this abjectly atrocious argument about manual labor made by a number of people on HN and it's astounding how poorly thought through it is.
How? How will it do this?
Basically, people seem to assume that "AI" has some kind of magical power to do whatever bad thing they can imagine, and then they extrapolate from there. I don't see it.
> physical labor
If you think the jobs I described are purely "physical labor", or that the physical labor involved is so highly taxing that people can only do those jobs for a short time before they wear out, you definitely need to think again.
(You also definitely need to think again if you think those jobs are low paying. Plenty of people make quite a healthy living doing them.)
True today. What happens when the other industries collapse and there’s a flood of labor into these industries? Sure - initially the experienced and skilled labor will continue to command a higher price - but over time supply of talent will drive that down too.
Will they still make a healthy living when there's an influx of laborers fleeing more automated parts of the economy?
GS just put out a report today estimating the impact of AI: https://www.businessinsider.com/generative-ai-chatpgt-300-mi....
I wonder sometimes if these accounts on HN making insane arguments that generative AI somehow won't be economically calamitous are bots. In fact, if I was at OpenAI and the goal was to avert scrutiny long enough to get to AGI, unleashing a torrent of AI shill bots might be near the top of the agenda.
Will those laborers have the skills required for those jobs?
> GS just put out a report
LOL--Goldman Sachs as an authoritative source on the impact of AI.
> I wonder sometimes if these accounts on HN making insane arguments that generative AI somehow won't be economically calamitous are bots.
You must be joking: you actually have trouble telling posts by bots from posts by humans? Even with a large number of samples? (Never mind that you can also look at the account's profile page, which will give you very useful information.)
If you think this is the world "AI" is leading us toward, I think you need to think again. There are a huge range of skills that only humans can provide, and that will continue to be true. GPT-3 can't fix your plumbing or your HVAC when it breaks. It can't fix your car. It can't build houses. It can't build roads. It can't build computers. And on and on and on...
Nor are AI enthusiasts trying to get "AI" to do any of these things.
Humans are real-world creatures with real-world needs that we supply to each other by free markets, specialization, and trade. The "tech community" might take all this for granted, but that doesn't mean it just happens by magic. It happens because real humans do real work. "AI" is not going to take that over any time soon.