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A comment on John Carmack: From a DM, just in case anyone else needs to hear this. Parent comment

Re:John Carmack: From a DM, just in case anyone else needs t... by jstx1 on Sunday March 19, 2023 @04:49AM (#35217184)
You can't extrapolate from an arbitrary selection of technologies and assume that LLMs will have the same trajectory. They could be like the iPhone, or they could be like self-driving cars which have been a year away from replacing all drivers for 10 years now.
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Re:John Carmack: From a DM, just in case anyone else needs t... by pharmakom on Sunday March 19, 2023 @04:52AM (#35217201)
Self driving cars a few years ago seem particular close in hype level and apprehension to LLM today but progress on those has not matched expectations at all. What if GPT4 is the last major advance in LLMs for a really long time?
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Re:John Carmack: From a DM, just in case anyone else needs t... by thequadehunter on Sunday March 19, 2023 @06:48AM (#35217754)
Might just be me, but I think the big difference here is the level of adoption. Everybody with an internet connection can use an LLM. It hits closer to home that way, whereas driving is very dangerous and most people haven't used a self driving car before.
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Re:John Carmack: From a DM, just in case anyone else needs t... by onion2k on Sunday March 19, 2023 @05:30AM (#35217392)
You can't extrapolate from an arbitrary selection of technologies...

I'm not. I'm saying it's true for every technology. Everything gets better with time.

As for self driving cars, compare a DARPA challenge car from 2013 to a Waymo car today. It's massively better.

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