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Re:Joint Statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federa... by unicornmama on Monday March 13, 2023 @05:51AM (#35133418)
In your example, the market's saying that $1200 in 10 years won't have the purchasing power of $1200. And the future purchasing power would be closer to $800 than to $1000. Consider an alternative world where inflation is zero but you paid $1200 for a $1000-par bond.

The important concept here is the time value of money.

Re:Joint Statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federa... by acjacobson on Monday March 13, 2023 @06:09AM (#35133545)
The price doesn't fall because the future purchasing power falls, the price falls because there are better alternatives in the market. No one will pay $1000 for a 2% return when they can pay $1000 for a 5% return. Market participants will always maximize their return. Bond prices adjust to be competitive or equivalent.

But the govt. doesn't have this problem. They don't care about maximizing return - they care about containing contagion. So they can pay $1000 for a 2% return and not still not lose money over the long term.

Re:Joint Statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federa... by unicornmama on Monday March 13, 2023 @07:28AM (#35134192)
Inflation strongly determines interest rates. You are getting 5% return because inflation expectations are high which caused the Fed to raise interest rates. When you see 5% risk free, you assume high inflation. The price falls because of the risk free rate, which is caused by high inflation, which causes drop in purchasing power.
Re:Joint Statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federa... by twblalock on Monday March 13, 2023 @05:53AM (#35133435)
This is not how investment losses or returns are calculated for accounting purposes, which is what matters when we talk about the solvency of a bank.