It doesn’t follow that there will be any losses to cover. The government can take ownership of the assets of the bank and won’t be stuck having to sell them at a loss.
They are indeed trying to shrink their balance sheet, but at the volumes they are working at, the entirety of SVBs assets amount to a few months of the fed’s current volumes.
After two years, that bond now has FMV of 1000/(1.02^8) = $853. But then interest rates increase to 4%, so its FMV drops to 1000/(1.04^8) = $731.
If we sold today at the FMV then we'd realize an $89 loss from our purchase price. That's neither better nor worse than holding to maturity, though--that's what makes it the FMV. In the case where we sell, we'd get $731 now, but we could reinvest it at 4%. After the remaining eight years, that would give us 731*(1.04^8) = $1000, exactly the same as if we'd held.
HTM accounting treats the two cases as different, but that's an arbitrary regulatory decision, untethered from any economic reality. It has no meaning outside that narrow compliance purpose. The SVB's decision to treat that accounting fiction as if it were economically meaningful appears to be a major part of how they blew themselves up.
You don’t open a savings acct and get told “you could lose this money.”
You’re given a sold-to-you contract from the bank for a specific rate of return for the privilege of them being allowed to hold and work with your money.
If one chooses to dep >250k - that’s on them.
Most likely there are no losses so long as the assets don’t need to be sold in a fire sale. The bank just needs liquidity.
Banks that may be otherwise solvent may become insolvent because of a domino risk of bank runs.
Probably the right thing to do is forced equity dilution of a bank experiencing a run. That is, the Fed buys senior equity in the bank and the injection pays for short term losses.
The equity injection guarantee alone would likely be enough to stop the contagion and calm markets.
I thought "TARP" / equity injections into banks was a "never again" kinda deal. With Dodd-Frank regulations being passed back then to try to stop these things from being regular. We can't just buyout every bank that collapses.
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At a minimum, I want to see major banks (similar to AIG) teetering on the brink before we reach for those tools again. This absolutely should not, and cannot, be our main way forward whenever a banking issue arises.
That to me implies the bank was never solvent in the first place. You could have easily created a bank that is always solvent, see the case of The Narrow Bank, but the Fed wouldn't allow it.
I’d also insist that the govt/fdic must sell their shares on the open market with 30 days, even at a loss.
When people take financial risks (such as holding more than $250K in FDIC insured bank account), why should taxpayers cover their losses?