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A comment on Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Agency Now Says. Parent comment

Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by vikingerik on Monday February 27, 2023 @04:29PM (#34962121)
I said don't focus on the number, I was simply using 2% as an illustration for how such a headline can be constructed to be misleading. Since you didn't read my post I won't read the rest of yours.
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Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by PathOfEclipse on Monday February 27, 2023 @05:12PM (#34962678)
You say "don't focus on the number", and then say in the same sentence "it's for illustration." Well, if you pick a terrible number, don't you think that affects the quality of your illustration? See, your illustration was as bad as the number you pulled out of a hat to construct it, but if you refuse to learn from criticism when presented to you, then I'm certainly not going to waste any more time on you either.

To recap, you assumed "low confidence" means "highly unlikely", which is false. The 2% number you chose, is, let's say, very illustrative of the mistake that you made.

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