Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag...
by strken on Sunday February 26, 2023 @06:09PM
(#34950693)
> Further, certainly "low confidence" doesn't imply that the inverse conclusion is likely true.
Not by the strictest definition of "likely", no, but it certainly does imply there's a high enough likelihood of spreading from the wild that a lab leak isn't conclusive. It's not meaningless nor even "relatively meaningless": it's just very difficult to tell where a given virus came from unless there's a smoking gun, and any conclusion in any direction is going to be shaky.
Not by the strictest definition of "likely", no, but it certainly does imply there's a high enough likelihood of spreading from the wild that a lab leak isn't conclusive. It's not meaningless nor even "relatively meaningless": it's just very difficult to tell where a given virus came from unless there's a smoking gun, and any conclusion in any direction is going to be shaky.