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Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by nradov on Sunday February 26, 2023 @04:35PM (#34949739)
The model wasn't bad, just useless.
Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by pickovven on Sunday February 26, 2023 @04:41PM (#34949804)
Worse than useless. It likely impacts election outcomes.
Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by ss108 on Sunday February 26, 2023 @04:40PM (#34949789)
Why useless? People have to attempt to predict the outcomes of elections, and have to do their best.
Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by afiori on Sunday February 26, 2023 @04:47PM (#34949856)
I would guess that the vast majority of the population do not take meaningful actions based on election prediction (other than "I might [not] need to actually vote").

There are good reasons to have polls and predictions but they are far from necessary.

Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by hermiod on Sunday February 26, 2023 @04:55PM (#34949937)
Just because something isn't useful to everyone, doesn't mean it isn't useful to someone.

The original claim was that election prediction is useless -- are you willing to concede that election prediction isn't useless?

Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by nradov on Sunday February 26, 2023 @09:40PM (#34952306)
I made no such claim. I merely stated that this particular election prediction was useless.
Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by ss108 on Sunday February 26, 2023 @04:55PM (#34949935)
People who work for political campaigns need to know, businesses and investors might like to plan, etc.
Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by afiori on Monday February 27, 2023 @01:58AM (#34953827)
Yes, but it is not "needed" in the current form. It is needed the same way you need to predict how global trends will be in 6 months: very important for a lot of people, but not an actionable information for most.
Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by hn_throwaway_99 on Sunday February 26, 2023 @04:50PM (#34949887)
Highly disagree that it was "useless":

1. First, when many pundits were basically saying there was no chance that Trump would win, Silver was particularly highlighting not just that it was in the realm of possibility, but would not even be very surprising if Trump won (e.g. I think Nate does a good job with his "same probability of a team down by 3 points at the beginning of the 4th quarter coming back to win" to clarify to a lay person that this isn't unusual).

2. When making political predictions based on polling that turn out to be "wrong" (i.e. end up going the way of the < 50% option), it's helpful to think of why this might happen. In Trump's case, it was pretty obvious he was a very different type of politician than what came before, so it's worth thinking whether that difference might result in widespread error in some polls. Also, whenever a race is very close, it's obvious that any small movements one way or the other can affect the outcome. In 2016 Trump lost the popular vote by a substantial margin but won the electoral collage by a significant but not huge amount. In fact, the "all or nothing" way the US electoral college system works has the effect of amplifying smaller differences into larger vote outcomes.