Cellebrite and GrayKey are prominent providers of cellular DFIR hardware used by government agencies.
The implicit assumption is that the states always go for the faster solution. I'd argue that intercepting an SMS/call is easier/faster for nation-states, than arrest and torture; most carriers worldwide have interception capabilities mandated by law: using the secret police to subvert those capabilities is not rocket science - especially when coordinating with hacking-as-a-service companies like "Team Jorge".
What really grinds my gears, when someone confidently state their thought experiment/"derivation from (idealized) first principles" as a rebuttal to empirical evidence. Incidentally, the wording is sometimes absolute, which cloaks the speculative (and wrong) nature of such comments ("No, not really hacked." Implying hacking doesn't happen, and yet it does).
I've seen such 'truthy' but wrong comments voted to the top on HN, because the up-voters share the same blindspot and think "Yeah, that sounds right"
That’s what cops in Belarus did to me twice since 2020 when I declined to unlock my phone. That’s what they did to many of my friends and colleagues. Hacking happens but it is a more of an exception as it requires planning and effort, which is hard. Blackmail and threats are much easier.
When a person says "A happens", and another responds by saying "A doesn't really happen - rather B happens", their assertion is insufficient to refute the existence of A, whether based on a cost analysis thought experiment or personal experience with B. It is far more accurate for the second person to make an addition rather than a refutation by saying "B also happens more frequently than A"
In some cases they use israeli hardware (forgot the name of the company), if you are fooled into giving your phone away for some period of time, like entering a police building, where they have a "no-phone zone" for visitors.