I think prices have spiked. Two years ago I installed a new heat pump to replace an old failing 5-ton air conditioner (which was paired with a high efficiency natural gas furnace; I kept the furnace as backup instead of relying on electric strips). It was $6K altogether. Was just going to replace the A/C with a new one, but the differential was $1500 and so I figured why not.

OTOH, a few months ago my stepmother installed minisplits after getting quoted $22K to install a whole-home forced air heat pump (going from no forced air at all, so part of that cost was ducting, though it's a single story ranch house so not terribly difficult).

Somewhere between those two points, prices went insane.