News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by chimprich on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @10:16AM (#34596093)
> Now Britain is basically irrelevant on the world stage.

This sort of statement is something regularly repeated in the UK, but it doesn't make much sense. The UK has the world's 6th biggest GDP, is one of the few nuclear powers, has significant soft power, is a permanent UN security council member, etc. Brexit has been an act of astonishing self-harm, but talking about "trying to survive" is a bit ridiculous.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by NoboruWataya on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @10:41AM (#34596492)
Compared to how it was in the "good old days" it is certainly much less relevant. Having the 6th largest GDP doesn't really give you much sway in the developed world when you are up against vastly larger economies like the US, the EU and China. The US and the EU, at least, are exporters of rules and standards in the way that the UK is not (it effectively was when it was a member of the EU, as it had a lot of influence on the EU position).

Being a nuclear power is again not that relevant today besides giving the UK a slightly greater chance of avoiding a nuclear strike (a remote possibility anyway).

It's certainly more relevant on the global stage than a lot of countries but it's not controversial to say it is in a much different position now than at the height of the empire.

As for trying to survive, Brexit has bolstered the Scottish independence and Irish unification movements and created severe, intractable problems in Northern Ireland in particular. England will survive and London will survive, but the UK? Time will tell.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by fidgewidge on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @02:43PM (#34600762)
It's a good thing the UK is less "relevant" than in those days! It would not be better for the world or for Britain if the British Empire was still at its peak. After all the Empire was wound down deliberately, the people didn't want to continue with it.

"The US and the EU, at least, are exporters of rules and standards in the way that the UK is not (it effectively was when it was a member of the EU, as it had a lot of influence on the EU position)."

No, that's a common claim but not really true. The UK had very little influence inside the EU and the EU rules were almost always made to satisfy the needs of either the EU institutions themselves, or the domestic economies of France and Germany.

A good way to see this is to look at the fate of the "single market for services". The UK is uniquely strong in the services market, so guess what the EU never made much progress with? Compare to its obsession with harmonizing everything to do with goods trading, which benefits primarily Germany.

Another way is to look at how responsive the EU was to the concerns of British voters on immigration levels. Answer: they hold voters in contempt and weren't willing to budge an inch. There was no influence, that's why the UK voted to leave.

"As for trying to survive, Brexit has bolstered the Scottish independence and Irish unification movements"

The latter maybe yes. The former, probably not. Scotland would have to apply to join as a regular country and its finances are in no state that would allow that.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by NoboruWataya on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @07:35PM (#34604545)
> It's a good thing the UK is less "relevant" than in those days! It would not be better for the world or for Britain if the British Empire was still at its peak. After all the Empire was wound down deliberately, the people didn't want to continue with it.

Absolutely agree it is a good thing. Probably not everyone sees it that way though. As for the British people choosing to wind the empire down, I must have missed that referendum.

> No, that's a common claim but not really true. The UK had very little influence inside the EU and the EU rules were almost always made to satisfy the needs of either the EU institutions themselves, or the domestic economies of France and Germany.

All I can say is that as a lawyer in the EU (who works closely with the UK) that is not my perception or experience. EU financial regulation heavily bears a British stamp, and the single market was immensely beneficial for London. One of the main EU initiatives that was in full swing just as Brexit happened was the Capital Markets Union which was absolutely a UK-led initiative, headed by UK Commissioner Jonathan Hill. Since Brexit happened and Hill resigned, that initiative has trundled on, but has completely lost momentum and not really delivered what it was supposed to.

> Scotland would have to apply to join as a regular country and its finances are in no state that would allow that.

This seems as over-confident a prediction as the predictions that the UK would never vote to leave. The EU took in Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria for political reasons, it is not that much of a stretch to say it could take in Scotland.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by fidgewidge on Wednesday February 01, 2023 @06:07AM (#34609000)
The British effectively voted for that when they kicked Churchill out at the end of the war. It wasn't a referendum but was partly on those issues. Churchill was an empire man to the last, but the public wanted socialist spending at home, not imperial spending abroad. So they thanked him for winning the war by sending his opposition to number 10.

CMU is the EU trying to take control of the financial industry via their usual trick of "harmonizing" rules rather than allowing differentiation with mutual recognition. It doesn't address the problems actual voters had around unlimited immigration. That is taboo for the EU.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by chimprich on Wednesday February 01, 2023 @07:07AM (#34609395)
"Unlimited immigration" is how the right-wing press like to spin it, but it's a core part of the EU: free movement of goods, services, and people. Free movement is part of the deal.

Free movement enhances trade. The US doesn't restrict people from moving between states. The UK wouldn't accept Scotland trying to reduce people from other parts of the UK from working or living there.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by fidgewidge on Thursday February 02, 2023 @11:42PM (#34637228)
How is it right-wing press spin, if it's entirely accurate as you say yourself?
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by chimprich on Friday February 03, 2023 @06:11AM (#34639724)
"Spin" is the presentation. Calling it "uncontrolled immigration" is to put a maximally emotive framing on the subject. It's intended to trigger negative emotions and conjure up images of hordes of people arriving in chaotic fashion ("uncontrolled").
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by fidgewidge on Friday February 03, 2023 @08:32AM (#34640816)
But as you clearly admit it is (was) in fact uncontrolled immigration. I think your political biases are coloring this. It's a statement of fact. You believe it's a negatively "spun" fact because it is, in fact, a negative to basically everyone. Unlimited immigration cannot work because, even putting cultural issues to one side, you can't build unlimited infrastructure at unlimited speed.
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by chimprich on Friday February 03, 2023 @11:37AM (#34643482)
In practice there's no such as thing as "unlimited immigration". There are natural limitations such as available jobs, housing and people willing to relocate.

> a negative to basically everyone

That's a politicised absolute which is clearly false. I think your political biases are colouring this.

I go back to my previous example. The UK doesn't try to impose government control on movement between its constituent countries, and the US doesn't limit movement between states. Freedom of movement improves economic outlook.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by fidgewidge on Tuesday February 07, 2023 @06:14AM (#34691287)
The number of people willing to relocate to rich Western countries is effectively unlimited. Not literally infinite but so large it is equivalent. Jobs are not a limitation because governments will pay for benefits, including housing benefits. That's why it's actually fair to describe it as unlimited.
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by chimprich on Tuesday February 07, 2023 @07:57AM (#34692116)
We're talking about movement within the European Union, so "willing to relocate to rich Western countries" doesn't make any sense at all. The West already includes Europe.

All EU countries are reasonably affluent by global standards. Some countries are richer than others, but it doesn't make economic sense to move from a country where you have a job to claim benefits in another one.

EU countries aren't obliged to pay benefits to people who have never worked in the country, so your idea that "governments will pay for benefits" is a very simplified view.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by dTal on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @10:28AM (#34596291)
UK is a nuclear power on sufferance of the US. It hasn't built its own nukes since 1960 or so. Which by an odd coincidence is right around when it lost its empire as well.

GDP is not a reliable metric of prosperity, but in any case the UK's GDP is built on financial services. The "moat" for that is essentially a "network effect" - people do business where other people do business. Interfere with that and it can vanish overnight.

"Soft power" is essentially a function of money. See above.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by wbl on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @10:48AM (#34596611)
The UK maintains its own warheads and its own designs. The only thing it gets from the US is the submarine missile: the hulls are also domestic.
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by dTal on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @11:05AM (#34596900)
I stand partially corrected; however it is worth noting that its "own designs" consist of a single warhead "closely based on" a US one. Although nominally the UK maintains the capacity to design a new weapons system, this capacity has not been tested.
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by devnull3 on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @10:53AM (#34596693)
> Nuclear powers

meh. It is a deterrence at best. Contributes nothing in terms of economic might.

> Soft power

Agree. The royal family which was a major attraction seems to be on wane (imo) after Queen's death

> permanent UN security council member

This is rooted in post-World-War-2 setup. If the council had to be setup fresh today, UK will not figure in top 5 for sure. There are many countries which are more deserving.

> Brexit has been an act of astonishing self-harm

Agree.

> Talking about "trying to survive" is a bit ridiculous.

Agree here too.

The key thing is that UK is declining. Its the trend that is important here.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by matthewdgreen on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @11:18AM (#34597117)
The question is whether the UK can continue to justify its substantial spending on military and foreign-policy influence.

When the UK maintained a global empire, the answer was "obviously yes." When the UK held a dominant position in European governance (along with the various benefits that came with that), the answer was still "yes." But now the UK has given both of those things. So it's reasonable to ask if these are expensive luxuries from another era.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by fidgewidge on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @02:46PM (#34600800)
The UK never held anything close to a dominant position in European governance.
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by matthewdgreen on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @05:20PM (#34603127)
The UK was one of the top 3-4 nations by voting power (depending on the time) in the 27-member EU and a very important player in EU politics. Their negotiating power is evidenced by the fact that they were able to secure opt-outs from a number of treaty obligations.
Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by fidgewidge on Wednesday February 01, 2023 @06:04AM (#34608984)
In the past! Over time less and less was decided by voting and we saw what the UK's influence was worth when Cameron took voters concerns to the other leaders. Answer: shut up and do as you are told.

The EU hasn't been interested in votes for a long time and will certainly be even less interested in future.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by orwin on Tuesday January 31, 2023 @05:56PM (#34603550)
It was dominant though. Top2 or top3 in research orientation. I don't think a single project was ever done without major UK participants and researchers.

Granted, we mostly excluded 'public schools' in favor of UK universities, at least for research and engineering projects, but Edinburgh had more power than Hamburg and Hannover, and I think only Paris-Lyon had more projects than them. Mostly because we had space projects.

Re:UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF by fidgewidge on Wednesday February 01, 2023 @06:05AM (#34608988)
That's only one tiny aspect which hardly matters to anyone outside of academia.