fwiw, Caltrain's farebox recovery rate going into COVID was among the highest in the US at around 73%. Bart around 72%. WMATA was about 33%. [1]

[1] https://www.enotrans.org/article/the-mass-transit-fiscal-cli...

> Nobody talks about how much the army loses.

I mean, I do. But that boils mostly down to me perceiving more value in a robust public transit network than in a bloated MIC.

The average spend on a new car per year is not the same thing as what the 'average American' actually buys. Lots of people keep the same car for many years, or buy used, or even don't have a car.

Used cars cost roughly what new cars cost still, interest rates are higher than ever - insurance, gas, maintenance, car payments, parking, tickets, tolls, registration, license, etc, etc, it adds up really fast. Since it's so diffuse people aren't as sensitive. Not to mention with a used car w/o warranty you're on the hook for the whole cost if something goes wrong.

Of course there will be outliers, but owning a car is a massive money sinkhole and a disproportionate burden on the poor.

The average car insurance payment alone is $136 (and significantly more for those with 'bad credit' - i.e. the poor). The average monthly transit pass in the US is $83. [1, 2]

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/990891/us-average-monthl...

[2] https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/how-much-is-car...

2020 data is totally wrecked because of Covid. Check the 2019 data for comparison. Average is 39%. NY was 54%, WMATA was 39%.

https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/2020-11/...

That 39% is for all transit Bus is 19.7% Nationally and 13.6% for WMATA.

Nationally in millions, Bus: (Fare Revenues 3,778) / (Operating expenses 16,110.4 + Use of capital funds 3,0444.7) = 19.7%. They also break out Bus Rapid Transit which is much worse 16.1 / (166.1 + 51.7) = 7.4% as is Commuter Bus 57.9 / (597.7 + 170.7) = 7.5%

Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, Bus: $124,011,141 / ( $731,946,008 + $182,850,687 ) = 13.6%

So for WMATA forgoing Bus revenue wouldn’t move the needle very much.

PS: And that’s ignoring the overhead of collecting fairs. Skip that step and busses can move faster.

* * *

The driver or buss still needs to verify your ticket.

Compare a line of 20 people all try to get on and swipe a metro card vs a line of 20 people all trying to get on. Even collage busses where all people need to do is show school ID you still get people in line who suddenly can’t find their ID.

A public transport bus usually has several entrances, you can have a machine inside the bus at each entrance. Not everyone will play nice and pay if the bus driver doesn't check the ticket, but you could have random controls on the bus from time to time. In practice you of course have to weigh the costs of these different approaches.

Thanks! I’ll note that that’s still a far cry from half, but it’s certainly more favorable than 24%.

(NY’s 54% number is probably because of mixing of different fareboxes: recovery is much higher on the LIRR and MNRR than it is on the city buses and subways.)

Incidentally broken out at [1], the 2019 MTA recovery rates were:

- MTA heavy rail was 70%.

- Commuter rail was 55%.

- Commuter bus was 32%.

- BRT and Bus was 30%.

[1] https://www.enotrans.org/article/the-mass-transit-fiscal-cli...