I wouldn't worry about that. There are literally too many people with your background for this too matter.

I think there will be a form of credential-ism and it will continue to be similar to the tech interview.

Outright credentialism—of the right sort—would be so very much better than the FAANG tech interview, provided anyone could attempt to gain the credential through e.g. a one-off test maybe with refreshers every 5 or 10 years, without some required formal educational background. So, so much better.

It'd take a union to force FAANG into that, though, because it'd make job mobility much easier, so tend to increase wages.

How has this shaken out w/ unions in other industries? Do they push this sort of credentialism?

It's as varied as the work-- Lawyers and Doctors have professional organizations that enforce very strict credentialism, Screen actors have a loose org that enforces a firm "floor" for work conditions without hindering the ability for top talent to negotiate eye popping compensation packages. Pro sports players associations are another good example of low touch organizations that get results for everyone without holding back the super stars.

We can have a setup where everyone benefits, people who think they are top talent are free to capitalize on that fact if they truly are top talent, while also being protected from predatory employment practices if/when they aren't top talent. Even if we recognize the existence of 10x or 100x engineers surely we must also recognize that they are humans that will have family issues, mental health concerns or struggle with burnout / purpose / direction during a multi-decade career. No shortage of evidence that tech companies are working together to suppress engineering wages, why wouldn't engineers respond by working together to invigorate wages?

do you mean an apprentice program, because I think that would be great. I can't tell you how many "Senior" devs I've dealt with that don't know their ass from their elbow. At least with an apprentice program there is an expectation that you know certain things to become a journeyman, as things sit now you have no idea what base of knowledge someone has you're just guess from what's on the resume.