Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

Re:Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023 by gruez on Sunday January 01, 2023 @12:31PM (#34208476)

>Signs I look for of an impending recession:

>Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy

That's not borne out by the data. If you look at the graph for inflation[1], you see that falling inflation comes after recessions (helpfully shaded grey), not before. In other words, by the time you see stagflation, you're already deep in recession, or it has already passed. Therefore using it as a sign for "impending" recession makes no sense.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA

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Re:Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023 by Izkata on Sunday January 01, 2023 @02:39PM (#34209967)

Likewise the spikes in unemployment, they happen after the recessions begin: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

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