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Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by ceejayoz on Sunday December 25, 2022 @12:13PM (#34128888)
I would suspect Russia’s pain in Ukraine serves as an effective deterrent.

If China started amassing amphibious invasion forces near Taiwan, I’d expect the US to fill Taiwan with every javelin and stinger missile they can spare.

Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by detritus on Sunday December 25, 2022 @12:53PM (#34129359)
> every javelin and stinger missile they can spare

Are there any that many left?

Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by oneoff786 on Sunday December 25, 2022 @01:02PM (#34129457)
There aren’t many “spares” left, but there are many left overall. That being said, those aren’t the things Taiwan needs so it’s a bit moot.

Taiwan already has things like Patriot missiles and harpoons.

Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by Quillbert182 on Sunday December 25, 2022 @03:20PM (#34130839)
I’m sure Lockheed Martin and Raytheon would love to replenish the supply if we ever start to run low.
Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by ashwagary on Monday December 26, 2022 @10:56AM (#34138673)
Ukraine isnt a deterrant. Taiwan isn't surrounded by US yes-men countries. Most Asian nations will choose not to get involved in any continuation of a Chinese civil war.
Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by ceejayoz on Monday December 26, 2022 @12:31PM (#34139733)
> Taiwan isn't surrounded by US yes-men countries.

Taiwan is close to key US allies (Japan and Korea) and several other nations that aren't huge fans of China lately. It's also more protected than Ukraine by natural features, i.e. a strait the Chinese invasion force would have to cross in an amphibious assault.

The deterrent from Ukraine is that conflict's showing how effective large numbers of man-portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles can be on an invasion force.

Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by ashwagary on Monday December 26, 2022 @11:44PM (#34145190)
Do you believe Japan and South Korea would put their populations at risk to interfere in a Chinese civil war? I highly doubt it, they are smarter than that.
Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by ceejayoz on Tuesday December 27, 2022 @08:44AM (#34148524)
I don’t think they are dumb enough to let China take Taiwan unopposed, no.

Taiwan definitely got the Ukraine message, incidentally: https://twitter.com/MPWangTingyu/status/1607702645296492545

Re:China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provoc... by ashwagary on Tuesday December 27, 2022 @01:22PM (#34151800)
I disagree.

Both countries prefer a defensive posture in military development. If it isnt a threat to South Korea and Japan's territory, they will be reluctant to engage.

I don't expect either to risk escalating kenetic engagement with China for a 3rd party like Taiwan. This reunification glacier is moving in one direction and nobody in the neighborhood (except Taiwan) will be willing to stand in its path.