Not the OP, but you did not address the threat to the business model.

In a world where questions are answered by an engine like ChatGPT instead of people going to ad-filled webpages, Google's business model evaporates. Even if google captures 100% of the new pie, the new pie is much smaller than the current one.

are simple factual questions where Google makes money? I don't think so. I'm guessing they mostly make money when you're searching for goods and services.

I doubt Google makes you spend any more money than you were going to spend anyway. Likewise, chatgpt won't make you spend any less. For those times when you want to spend money, Google will continue to serve the purpose of helping you choose which thing to spend it on.

That's just it. Recently saw a great summary of this in a music forum.

"What are the lowest latency audio interfaces sorted by price" or something to that effect.

Like the person who posted it, that simple answer for chatgpt erases lots of clicks and views and hours of research.

In this hypothetical how is ChatGPT making money? Why can't Google make money on their equivalent the same way?

Of course Google can make money in the same way, but my point is that any reasonable price of what people would pay for a ChatGPT-like-service (which has to be competitive, as it can be replicated by others and the costs aren't that high) is far less than what Google can currently earn from the same queries through ads.

Like, currently a Google competitor like Bing or DuckDuckGo is still sending lots of money to Google because they redirect users to websites showing Google ads. A non-Google ChatGPT pays Google nothing.

What do you base this on? Customizable user-tailored ads through natural language would make even more money arguably and Google is uniquely positioned to do it.

Also consider that paying even a dollar a month for a service will result in the addressable market going down orders of magnitude. Apple is pretty much the only company in existence that is able to make people pay so much on luxuries like that.

Ads will be even more effective inserted into prose.

I've already reduced my Google queries by 70%.

I now query openai find a general idea and then query that in Google.

Speaking in absolutes when you don't have a crystal ball is annoying.