Autocratic countries with natural resources being dangerous and unreliable is not a black swan event. That's their normal mode of operating. Russia has always been behaving like they are now. The west could just ignore Chechnya, Dagestan, Georgia, and Ukraine (the first time). This time around the west woke up and pushed back. But we could have had an energy crisis and economic warfare from multiple of the other russian conflicts. If we had minded to intervene.