Anyway speculating is fun but you're right its just speculating. My main point is we should always keep in mind this could turn out to be great .
_And_ if since we care about our AI-interdependent future, more of us (as in the people here on HN) need to wade into the gory details, including ethics and the current power structures. The "technology" (as in algorithms, data structures, hardware, etc) is arguably the "easy" part. There are plenty of existing incentives and structures to keep those _moving_. But moving in what direction? Even the notion of an "ethical compass" seems antiquated in light of current technology. We may have to reframe everything. This is a big challenge.
They get nothing but tents and shame.
Where are the examples of the middle voting against the extremes when times get really hard?
First, I don't see "utopia" as likely; furthermore, I have a suspicion it may be impossible, given human nature.
Second, even the argument that society will be "better" demands much more reflection. The implied argument above is only a sketch. I don't find it convincing much less plausible. I'll call attention to four points (implied from above):
1. AI will replace humans in most or all professions
2. AI quality will be much higher than the previous human levels
3. A broad swath of people (using some notion of equity and fairness) will have enough money to live happily
4. "We'll spend much more time with family and friends"
Each of the four points are quite uncertain. Furthermore, even if `k` is true, `k+1` does not follow.
Who would like to flesh out some ways the sequence (1, 2, 3, 4) might happen?