That said, the current options are pretty low level (i.e. trying to get nerdctl running), versus the developer experience that many are familiar with.

I don't doubt that it will have some effect on Docker's market share, but saying that "Docker Desktop is pretty dead now" is perhaps getting ahead of oneself.

If anything, Podman and Rancher will have more influence in the near term, because they're (more) fully fledged and can be used today, instead of relying on software that's still very much in early active development and might have plenty of breaking changes. Not that their desktop offerings are there yet, either.