I somewhat doubt most people actually have the `"could this actually be true?"` phase. It seems most like... just your rational mind reminding you that whatever you set your priors, if you set it to exactly zero the Bayes' Theorem breaks down?

Sounds like cognitive dissonance, I have had similarly humbling experiences.

> Like, I don't quite believe the claim because I'm defensively rational, but I feel a certain dizziness and confusion (thinking to myself, "could this actually be true?") until I come back to my senses. The more outlandish and impassioned the speech, the stronger the effect.

I always like to ask myself: "what are they trying to get me to do?". Whether it's a habit, voting pattern, product, etc. Then I ask myself: "is it useful? who does it benefit?"

Whether it's true or not, idrc. what's more important (at least to me) is what it does and who it benefits

(also in this case to avoid any ethical conundrums, something is useful if it makes $, beneficial to X party if it makes them $)

> - Crypto bros

I'm in the field. Haven't experienced people who I could have described as bros. Can you point to one example?

This. In the language popularized by Kahnemann et al. I tell myself: wow, he really got my system 1. And then system 2 needs to work on on undoing the belief created, get back to sober doubt and weigh the probabilities.

But this is an interpretation after the fact, it feels exactly like you describe it. Stupor.

Edit: typo

But the odd time when system 2 is also satisfied, you genuinely learn something important and new. How lovely that feeling is.

If you spend a few years picking stocks, you'll come across this feeling all the time. It's confusion where there should be confusion, imo.

The reason I use stocks as an example - you can do some analysis on something, be pretty darn sure that a company is overvalued or undervalued or will grow about X or profitability will be Y, or some new product can't possibly work... and a few years later you'll be dead wrong, and the numbers will be right there to show you. You can't push back, you are wrong. You missed something, misunderstood something, underestimated something, overestimated something. Lots of smart people had well reasoned and informed arguments as to why the apple iphone wouldn't be a success.

Even if you are perfectly rational and logical, there is always the possibility you are missing a variable or a premise is just wrong enough to screw you. And the very person most likely to see the thing you are missing is someone quite different from you, who you may well think less of for whatever reason (even if it's valid, like crypto bros who do indeed seem to know zero about the financial system they criticize, and who i look down upon).

I don't think anyone believes they're irrational, even crazy people.

I do- I definitely see limits to my own rationality that have only been obvious after extraordinary reflection and addtional data. I would presume that most people who are truly self-aware recognize that we are all fundamentally irrational.