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Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by acidburnNSA on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:33PM (#33715205)
A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid.

The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructure, not so much.

"The EMP robustness of the civilian infrastructure of the United States can be summarized far less equivocally: it is entirely non-existent. Our civilian telephony, electricity, broadband communications and electronics plants are all naked to our nuclear-armed enemies. They were neither designed, nor engineered, nor constructed nor are they operated so as to survive nuclear explosion effects, even at very great distances – for the 'invisible hand' of the marketplace provides no incentives for EMP robustness, nor penalties for failing to so prepare. Large electric power and telephony systems are known to fail under the effects of solar storms, which impose far smaller electromagnetic stresses than are known to arise from high-altitude nuclear explosions of even modest scales. Consequently, even a modest, single-explosion EMP attack on the U.S. might well devastate us as a modern, post-industrial nation."

https://spp.fas.org/starwars/congress/1999_h/99-10-07wood.ht...

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by gjsman-1000 on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:34PM (#33715218)
But is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. If you can’t feed or heat/cool people, alliances quickly change - especially if you have no way of tracking who becomes AWOL.

As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants.

EDIT: Apparently the DoD requires diesel backup with enough fuel to last… “one to two weeks.” Meh… if I’m an EMP-empowered nation who hates the US, the grid looks tempting… sure, they can counterattack, but if you make investigating difficult and spread enough pandemonium… all you need to do is keep the government haphazardly distracted and confused for two weeks and you win…

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by acidburnNSA on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:38PM (#33715256)
> As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants.

Well the nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers have power plants, and a few military bases used to be powered with nuclear (Camp Century, Ft. Greenly, McMurdo Station). But your point is reasonable. We'd be able to counterattack militarily, but it still would not be a happy day, nor a lasting integrity.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by theteapot on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:40PM (#33715275)
Soldiers and their families would likely be some of the last to starve. Hardened.
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by sixstringtheory on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:48PM (#33715335)
> As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants.

FYI, Eielson AFB in Alaska has a coal plant and is working on an experimental nuclear microreactor installation, the first of its kind that the military plans to expand to other bases.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by areoform on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:03AM (#33715438)
> is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it.

That's where Article 90 of the UCMJ comes into play,

    Any person subject to this chapter who willfully disobeys a lawful command of that person’s superior commissioned officer shall be punished—

      (1) if the offense is committed in time of war, by death or such other punishment as a court-martial may direct; and
      (2) if the offense is committed at any other time, by such punishment, other than death, as a court-martial may direct.
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by gjsman-1000 on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:04AM (#33715447)
Right… but if a military base loses power, and the soldiers are starving, you may find that you quickly lose the ability to enforce the UCMJ effectively. And the moment you lose even a bit of control in such a situation, it will unravel potentially within hours.

The UCMJ works great when you can shame a soldier, have a Justice system to rely on, can seize assets or pay, have superiors in other states, and so forth. When it’s pandemonium everywhere… not much to keep it enforced especially when it gets really bad. The system works when a solider has something to lose… but when soldiers feel they have nothing to lose, heck, risk starving and actually losing more by staying…

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by parasubvert on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:29AM (#33715586)
I think you are overestimating the probability of a scenario where soldiers under duress will mutiny, rather than harden their resolve and commitment to the mission. We have both historical (Japan) and contemporary (Ukraine) examples of this.
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by aeneasmackenzie on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:43AM (#33715670)
When this actually becomes a real possibility, it doesn't turn out that way.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragging

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by Kamq on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @03:00AM (#33716416)
You... really don't want to challenge the US federal government to a game of war.

I mean, it's possible to win, but it requires 10-20 years and having quite a bit of your country destroyed (and possibly a couple countries near yours). Or at least, that's what's required when you can broadcast what's going on to the populace to turn them against the war. What it takes to defeat the US military when the populace can't communicate electronically is actually much more poorly defined.

This is really only a good strategy for countries with low-levels of infrastructure and a ruling faction with a strong ideological commitment against the US. So, places like Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Also, there's a decent stockpile of food for feeding the soldiers (and probably their families, although someone else might be able to speak to that better).

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by RetpolineDrama on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:43PM (#33715300)
We want civilian EMP hardening not just for a nuclear war, but also for an unexpected solar event. We want to be able to handle whatever nature throws at us, our fellow apes combined.

I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage, all EMP hardened to well above carrington event levels.

Most of you have a house full of IoT crap dependent on AWS (region) to function.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by oconnore on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:54PM (#33715386)
What are you using to store ~37 Tesla Powerwalls worth of energy? How is it EMP hardened?
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by PragmaticPulp on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:00AM (#33715413)
> I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage

How are you producing 120kw? That's the equivalent of around 300 solar panels (assuming 400W panels).

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by ltbarcly3 on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:07AM (#33715459)
That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels. If you have plenty of room and you can install them on the ground, and you are remote enough you can do it without permits or permits are easy to deal with (so really this means not California or New York) and wind isn't a huge concern (so not the Atlantic or Gulf coast) and your neighbors aren't constantly in your business (so not Texas) then this is easily done by someone who has a strong interest, a moderate income, and is a little handy. It is especially easy if you live somewhere so dry that wildfire is not a huge concern, and of course you need enough sunny days for it to be economical somewhat (although with this many panels you could live off this setup even in an Alaskan winter). My guess is they live in New Mexico or Nevada.
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by PragmaticPulp on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:39AM (#33715644)
> That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels.

I brought it up more for the space requirements. That’s a physically huge system. Panels are only a fraction of the overall cost. Unless you have a massive commercial building somewhere, 300 panels are going to take up a huge amount of ground-mount space. You also need a lot of inverters, wiring, etc.

Sure, somebody could do this with enough money and motivation, but the second question becomes: Why? That’s an order of magnitude more power than you’d need to cover a typical house’s energy use and top up those batteries.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by ltbarcly3 on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @01:07AM (#33715791)
I don't think it's very hard to EMP harden anything that has a physical size less than a few hundred meters. The power grid is in danger because there is a huge potential created over very long distances. I think to be protected from EMP just requires isolation from large DC voltages, which can be done with an isolating transformer and some varistors? But something which is not miles long and isn't connected to the grid won't really be touched by an EMP anyway.
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by Kamq on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @02:46AM (#33716344)
A couple hundred panels is less than half an acre or so.

Which, yeah, completely un-doable in manhattan (they already rules out NY anyways), but 10 acre lots are a thing in plenty of places.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by cassonmars on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:53PM (#33715369)
Is there a guide you followed or have for how to do this kind of hardening? I’ve wanted to do this for a while, don’t know where to start.
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by lettergram on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:59PM (#33715404)
A grounded steel garbage can with aluminum lining can actual work fairly well as a faraday cage. You can put emergency electronics in there (radio, backup batteries, collapsible solar panel, old laptop, lights, etc).
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by wildstrawberry on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:50PM (#33715351)
The creator of the grid collapse video also made a video about the risk of EMPs, and argued that while the impacts could be severe, the 'hollywood-style' devastation that many predict on the internet (and in this thread) is not likely.

https://practical.engineering/blog/2022/11/7/how-would-a-nuc...

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by lettergram on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:50PM (#33715353)
If I recall correctly, in that situation we’d expect a 90% fatality in 1 year.

https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s...

People thought I was nuts in 2021 when the lockdowns continued and I bought enough tools to survive such an event. I figured, people aren’t working, things gonna break. Lol

For reference, some basics would go a long way — survival straw to filter water, 3 month emergency food storage, fire starting kit, water collection, etc. for those in the country it’s really not much. A solar generator with a big battery could probably work for those in the country (with a well). For those in the suburbs you’ll need enough to hunker down for a few weeks (and guns). For the city, you need an escape plan and a place to go.

A true grid collapse would be insane. Most people don’t know how to do any of the basics all our families did only a generation or two ago.

How many people can? How many know how to preserve meat for long periods without a freezer? How many know how to grow food and store it?

I’ve spent the past couple years learning some of these skills and preparing the tools.

To be clear grid collapse is inevitable on a long enough time horizon. Being prepared with food, water and shelter is a bare minimum.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by couchand on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:34AM (#33715621)
If you're stocking up for survival purposes throw away the straw filters and get a case of chlorine dioxide tabs.
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by pc86 on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:25AM (#33715558)
Where did you learn these skills?

Hell I barely know how to change the oil in my car because I never had someone teach me and only recently got to a place in my life where I realized that sort of thing is important. I'm making headway, slowly but surely, but something like growing enough food for a family or acquiring meat, let alone preserving it, might as well be trying to get to the moon.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by Falkon1313 on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @02:27AM (#33716219)
>something like growing enough food for a family or acquiring meat, let alone preserving it, might as well be trying to get to the moon.

Funny to think that for our grandparents, that was just a typical Tuesday.

They did pickling, canning, preserves, all that stuff. Some might've done smoking and curing. Kept a spare freezer stocked. After the Great Depression, they weren't going to be caught empty-handed again.

Two generations later, we learned nothing from them and look at that as comparable to going to the moon. Wow.

But yeah, I don't know how to do any of that either. To learn, talk to some older people, I guess?

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by lettergram on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @07:44AM (#33718473)
I think everyone’s in their own situation. Easy stuff:

1. Start a garden this year. Learn the basics. A big garden is just the same principles at a larger scale.

2. Just start doing everything yourself. Go on YouTube and watch how to do X and do it. It’ll build general knowledge of how things work. Saves money, builds confidence, generally good skills regardless.

3. There are survivalist camps if you’re hard core (don’t think it’s necessary, but some people might like it idk)

4. Start curing / pickling your own food. Some simple examples: but everything from the store to make salsa and try that. Make your own bacon (very good) by buying pork belly. Country ham can be delicious and fairly straight forward. Just be sure to follow guides. The USDA publishes guides on canning for instance

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by roflyear on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:14AM (#33715505)
Prepare sure. But make sure you stock up on salt ;)
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by procinct on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @12:55AM (#33715729)
I’d be curious if you had any good book recommendations for covering the basics?
Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by duckmysick on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @03:05AM (#33716437)
> How many people can? How many know how to preserve meat for long periods without a freezer? How many know how to grow food and store it?

I do. It doesn't matter. I'm under no illusion I'd be able do defend myself and my food when I'm outnumbered and outgunned, being on alert 24/7. All it takes is one mistake and it's game over.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by lettergram on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @07:36AM (#33718408)
That’s the reality… become friends with your neighbors and if anything bad happens you can work together. Good to do in any case.

I also don’t think people will be as violent after the first 3-4 weeks without water or food. Simply put, those who collaborate have a higher likelihood of survival. There’s only so much you can steal.

If / when this situation arises be prepared and it’ll give you a buffer to survive longer. Have the skills to keep surviving after that and make friends who do as well. Make a plan to meet said friends. That’s really all you can do. It increases your odds

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by baybal2 on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:59PM (#33715405)
EMP was mostly relevant for the time when there was no digital grid protection.

Powerlines worked as giant antennas picking up the VLF component of the blast, driving voltages in megavolts for a brief while. All tricky analog devicery which was used to control the grid in seventies had no protection.

Now, fast acting digital safeties will certainly be more robust.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by therockspush on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @04:11AM (#33716848)
Is the military fully hardened? Seems like they have some more hardening to do.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/02/22/air-force-wan...

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by zikduruqe on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @05:52AM (#33717597)
I highly recommend reading One Second After by William R. Forstchen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After

I used to teach and consult on various preparedness topics and people used to ask me what my favorite "survival manual" was. It is this book.

TL;DR - 90% of the US population dies in 1 year.

Re:How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? by firstSpeaker on Tuesday November 29, 2022 @04:56AM (#33785606)
Yep, this is indeed a good series to read. When I read that it felt as close to a reality of the outcome as it can get.