Re:What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2023
by subroutine on Saturday November 19, 2022 @06:47PM
(#33676306)
It looks like they are simply providing the summary data to their multiple choice survey questions. Still, CI or SEM would not apply (there is no SEM for 80% of forecasters said 'yes'). These graphs are literally just telling you the percent of responders who picked a given answer to the corresponding question.
edit- the longer I browse their website for the exact methodology, the less impressed I am with this group. The "Introducing the Superforecasters" section is so cringe.
edit- the longer I browse their website for the exact methodology, the less impressed I am with this group. The "Introducing the Superforecasters" section is so cringe.
https://goodjudgment.com/about/