Re:What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2023
by tedsanders on Saturday November 19, 2022 @06:33PM
(#33676166)
These events are binary. They will happen or not. A percentage prediction already incorporates the uncertainty. In what way would a 45-55% prediction be any different than a 50% prediction? The domain of outcomes is a set of size 2: (0, 1). There are no intermediate outcomes. Both predictions are functionally identical: {0: 50%, 1: 50%}.
(Where confidence intervals over percentages makes more sense is estimating a parameter rather than an event. E.g., if we flip this coin a bunch of times in series, I predict that the percentage of flips will be between 45% and 55%.)
((One sense in which a 45%-55% prediction might have some semantic meaning is that it could signal a higher willingness to adjust if new evidence or information is brought to light. But that's quite different than a confidence interval.))
As some wild speculation, I suspect that since the GJP only employs a handful of Superforcasters, the initial confidence intervals for these broad questions may be quite large. That's to be expected when predicting a year in advance, but publically admitting to have such a broad confidence interval is probably not very good for marketing.