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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by temporalparts on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:17PM (#33672153)
This has happened before for another conflict that Russia was involved in:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Russia%E2%80%93Georgia_en...

> It’s especially absurd that Russia was ever even considered a suspect.

So I don't see how it's absurd to suspect a repeat of the nearly exact same situation where the only common party is Russia.

The fact that you think it's absurd without looking into facts either makes you naive or worse.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by colordrops on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:21PM (#33672207)
In the link you provide, I don't understand why Russia couldn't just turn the gas flow off rather than destroy the lines, if the purpose is blackmail.

Also, if you look at the two recent times the US accused Syria of chemical attacks, both turned out to be misinformation, as determined by the international body that investigates these things. Yet the first time it "happened" was called back to as evidence that they "did it" the second time, even though neither even occurred.

https://apnews.com/article/chemical-weapons-syria-archive-al...

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by miguelazo on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:25PM (#33672252)
Exactly. These people will go through the most insane mental gymnastics to preserve their simplistic worldview. Sad to see so many brains rotted by Russiagate.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by kube-system on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:31PM (#33672322)
Deniability is the main difference between shutting them off and sabotaging them.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by tsimionescu on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:37PM (#33672401)
Does that work for the EU situation? Russia had already denied to supply the required amounts of gas before the sabotage happened...
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by kube-system on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:43PM (#33672494)
Russia had suspect excuses for those cuts as well. Never once did they say “we’re shutting this off because fuck you”. They always left room for diplomatic deniability.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by tsimionescu on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:56PM (#33672681)
Fair enough.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by colordrops on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:48PM (#33672570)
Deniability and blackmail are at odds with each other.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by kube-system on Saturday November 19, 2022 @01:02PM (#33672752)
Yeah it’s not blackmail, it’s coercion.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by colordrops on Saturday November 19, 2022 @01:15PM (#33672927)
What's the distinction? I'm going with the term used in the wiki link.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by twaw on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:46PM (#33672545)
Determined by what?
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by denton-scratch on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:55PM (#33672661)
Indeed. Nonetheless, that sabotage seems to be a fact. I'd completely forgotten about the story in parent's wikipedia link; the similarities are striking. But in Georgia, they struck Georgian electricity distribution at the same time as pipelines; in the Nordstream attacks, they're not attacking European electricity distribution.

So why blow things up, when you can just turn them off?

Maybe for show. By blowing them up, they demonstrate that they'll never be turned on again. What's that good for? It shows Russia's contempt for the cancellation of NS2, for business with the West in general, and for sanctions. Perhaps it's a muscular display of their power in the field of energy.

How can you show off, if you're going to deny that you did it? Well, it won't be the first time. There has been a number of murders by poisoning recently, just in the UK, that were pretty obviously Russia, that are denied by Russia. But the purpose of those murders was likely meant to intimidate - they needed to be obvious. So I recognize the MO.

I still think it's Biden, based on nothing at all. Except that he more-or-less promised he was going to.

These pipeline explosions ocurred in the "exclusive economic zones" of Sweden and Denmark respectively, so I understand. They are being extremely guarded about their investigation, refusing all requests to observe. Including from Germany, who are part owners. I think that's interesting, given that one early suggestion was that "Sweden done it".

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by colordrops on Saturday November 19, 2022 @01:10PM (#33672860)
> I still think it's Biden, based on nothing at all. Except that he more-or-less promised he was going to.

Well the US is now on track to be the largest LNG supplier on earth.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by foverzar on Saturday November 19, 2022 @02:48PM (#33673893)
> the largest LNG supplier on earth

Really? Wow, who could have thought that "freedom molecules" would actually work out.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by foverzar on Saturday November 19, 2022 @02:40PM (#33673811)
> Perhaps it's a muscular display of their power in the field of energy.

The mere fact that you use "perhaps" and have to imagine an interpretation for what could or could not be regarded as a vague signal, tells us that it's not it.

You know, just by definition of what a "display" is.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by _djo_ on Saturday November 19, 2022 @03:19PM (#33674212)
> Also, if you look at the two recent times the US accused Syria of chemical attacks, both turned out to be misinformation, as determined by the international body that investigates these things. Yet the first time it "happened" was called back to as evidence that they "did it" the second time, even though neither even occurred.

That’s a misleading summary of their findings. The OPCW was prevented from conducting any on site investigations in Saraqib, meaning it could not conclusively prove the use of chemical weapons. That doesn’t make the claims ‘misinformation’. In Aleppo the claim was made by the Syrian government against rebels, not by the US government.

The Fact-Finding Mission wasn’t able to visit the site of the alleged incident or the hospital where injured victims were treated. It had to rely on data including interviews, hospital records and videos and photographs.

Its investigations and analysis “did not allow the FFM to establish whether or not chemicals were used as a weapon,” according to the report issued Friday.

And there is substantial confirmed evidence of the Syrian government using chemical weapons against its own people, such as at Ghouta amongst other places. [0]

[0] https://unoda-web.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/1...

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by miguelazo on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:30PM (#33715180)
The OPCW mission was totally compromised. https://thegrayzone.com/tag/opcw/
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by miguelazo on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:24PM (#33672235)
What’s naive is entertaining for a second the notion that Russia would blow up its own 10 billion dollar pipeline. Not only does it make NO economic sense, strategically it makes Germany less dependent on Russia, which is a bad thing for Russia. Not to mention the US explicitly threatened to “end” Nordstream as the German head of state was standing right next to Biden. Such a coincidence that the pipeline was blown up as Germany and Russia were negotiating resuming operations.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by zzleeper on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:37PM (#33672410)
Yes it does. Russia's goals was to force Europe's hand (Germany mostly) to certify NS2.

First, in Aug. Russia cuts NS1 to 20% citing supposed repairs: "Gazprom in July cut gas deliveries via NS1 to 20% of maximum capacity, citing turbine repair delays that it blamed on Western sanctions against Russia because of the war."

There, they say "oh hey but look you have NS2 so why don't you certify it".

Then, they turned it off completely:

"The state-controlled firm disclosed Friday flows on NS1 would be closed from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 during scheduled maintenance on its only currently operating compressor at a key station, Portovaya CS."

Again, they say "well you can always use NS2". But when Europe didn't bite the bullet and surrender to their demands, they made it even more obvious that the only route for gas would be NS2, by blowing NS1.

If this was UK or US sabotage, they would have blown NS2 completely, while possibly leaving NS1 alone.

Links:

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-gazprom-plans-3-day-...

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-planned-shutdown-of-...

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by foverzar on Saturday November 19, 2022 @03:02PM (#33674029)
> they made it even more obvious that the only route for gas would be NS2, by blowing NS1.

Except NS2 had also exploded.

Even if it didn't, can you explain the purpose of this all? What is there to be gained? NS1 had bigger capacity, which meant more money.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by _kbh_ on Saturday November 19, 2022 @07:35PM (#33676735)
> Except NS2 had also exploded.

Except it didn't there was a single pipe of NS2 left untouched, if you think it was the US why did they leave a single pipe for Russia to use as leverage to certify NS2?.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by foverzar on Sunday November 20, 2022 @02:47PM (#33684542)
Ok, 50% of NS2 had exploded, and the German government doesn't consider the only remaining pipe to be safe: https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/nord-stream-2-berlin-glaub...

More pedantic, but doesn't change my point.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by welterde on Saturday November 19, 2022 @07:40PM (#33676773)
No. Both NS1 and NS2 have nominally the same capacity. And both consist of two pipes each. Both pipes of NS1 were destroyed, but only one of the NS2 pipes was.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by hatch_q on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:33PM (#33672353)
You're missing the big picture. After Siemens gave Canadian export license that allows Gazprom to "repair" the turbines, there were no more excuses for Gazprom to not respect contractual obligation to provide gas through the pipeline. In short, Gazprom was facing enormous penalties for not providing gas. I am not saying Gazprom did it, but they had a reason and means (using a PIG) to do it.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by mhermher on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:54PM (#33672645)
Europe is sanctioning the hell out of Russia, and yet Gazprom would pay huge penalties on violating a contract. If anything this story shows why it's unlikely they blew up the pipeline. After that whole legalese theater, they just decided to turn off the tap. As simple as that. And just as simple to refuse to pay any fees.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by cycomanic on Saturday November 19, 2022 @01:15PM (#33672926)
Things are not so easy, just yesterday there was an article about the financial crises caused by a Korean state not honouring their bond promises.

If Gazprom would simply turn off the gas and say f* off to the fines, they would signal to ask buyers that they are willing to disregard contracts for political reasons. This would significantly undermine confidence in doing business with them, and likely lower prices people would pay for their gas.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by MichaelCollins on Saturday November 19, 2022 @01:22PM (#33673013)
Korea isn't in a war (their northern neighbor notwithstanding). They are still ostensibly abiding by the rule of law, so of course they're not going to merely give the finger to anybody who tries to fine them.

Or maybe those courts which could somehow force Russia to pay fines for turning off gas should force Russia to pay fines for invading Ukraine.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by assholehoff on Saturday November 19, 2022 @01:17PM (#33672954)
I'm not sure you understand how vile the oligarchs of Russia are. The country is a kleptocracy. These guys don't give two shits about the citizens of Russia, never mind anywhere else. They are constantly making insane deals that are terrible for the country and the citizens, but enrich themselves personally.
Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by foverzar on Saturday November 19, 2022 @03:04PM (#33674062)
I'm pretty sure you yourself have a really vague understanding of Russian oligarchs and their power, if you bring them up in this context.

They don't really influence the big politics. Not for the last 20 years or so, at least. Semibankirschina is long gone.

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by miguelazo on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @11:33PM (#33715209)
Interesting, sounds exactly like Ukraine. Maybe how this war happened in the first place?