The second point is a comparison about which is more probable. If the risk of an exchange goes up (it becomes more probable), at some point it passes the risk threshold of losing control of the BTC in your own wallet.

Exchanges have imploded, been hacked, been subject to exit scams, etc since Mt Gox.

People just forget and there’s been enough newbies in the space this run they don’t know.

That said I agree with you it’s tipped further but the vast majority of people playing with crypto don’t stand a chance of securing and maintaining their own wallet. Having a non-custodial wallet also defeats the purpose of crypto for most people - their only use is trading on an exchange.

Tipped? You need to update your model with what has happened in the last few months, it’s not a random exchange exploding every few years anymore. Yes there are risks securing a piece of paper, but don’t fall for the perfect solution fallacy, the alternative of keeping all their crypto on exchanges is simply irresponsible. Newbies this run that only signed and used exchanges like betting websites and don’t want to learn more then simply must get out, there is no alternative to owning your keys.

Bank of America has 67 million customers. Should we try to venture a guess at how many password resets they do daily? It almost certainly has to be in the tens if not hundreds of thousands. People that temporarily lose access to their bank account are not going to magically change their nature because of the word “crypto”.

The average person who got into crypto because they saw a Larry David commercial will almost certainly lose access to their wallet at some point on a long enough timeline. Except this time, with crypto, it’s permanent and the only thing that will happen is people online will tell you it’s a good thing you hopefully learned your lesson.

And, again, not being able to trade completely defeats the purpose of having anything to do with the space for almost all of these users in the first place.

Numbers matter here. If "all their crypto" is $500 worth, and represents a small portion of their wealth, and they're actively trading it, going out to a wallet isn't really that sensible. But yes, if they're sitting on thousands, your comment stands. The relative language though does feel like it just adds to the confusion of folks trying to figure out the space.