This prediction doesn’t track with what is already happening. Dreambooth is allowing all kinds of people to fine tune their own models at home with nvidia graphics cards, and people are sharing all kinds of updated models that do really well at specific art styles or with NSFW subjects. Go check the nsfw subreddit unstable_diffusion for examples. It seems lots of people are training nsfw models with their own preferred data sets and last I saw someone merged all those checkpoints together in to one model.

So if I made a prediction it would be that the training sets for open models from big companies will get scrubbed of nsfw content and then nerds on Reddit will just release their own versions with it added in, and the big companies will make sure everyone knows they didn’t add that stuff and that’s where it will stand.