Yep. I don't think people realize how much damage hyperbole like this does. Each time one of these predictions don't pan out (which, come one, we'll all be able to laugh about this one in 2025) people take them less and less seriously.

If by "we" you mean Americans with in-demand technical skills and 6-figure salaries, then yes, we'll be okay. North America has a great setup for internal good security.

However, the rest of the world has to deal with losing 25% of cereals (from Russia and Ukraine) as well as the curtailment of rice imports from China, India, and Parisian. Similarly, the loss of Russia's and China's nitrogen, potassium, and potash exports cuts out ~20-30% of those resources, each of which is necessary to sustain post-industrial agricultural yields. This can easily cascade, for example, with Brazil and Latin American food exports drying up due to insufficient fertilizer input, or Saudi fertilizer output drying up due to regional insecurity or state collapse driven in part by high food prices.

So yes, "we" will be fine. North Africa and the Middle East... not so much.

You're moving the goalpost from what I said, but okay? I guess.