There's a quip somewhere about how the essence of futurist misprediction has been confusing unlike-in-quality and unlike-in-capability.

Unlike-in-quality is the same thing, only better. It rarely changes the world, because it's not an infinite value proposition.

Unlike-in-capability, on the other hand, is offering something that literally didn't exist before. It approaches infinite value, because it has the capability to reshape the world into one that requires its existence.

Mobile internet was unlike-in-capability.

I have a very uphill battle convincing myself AR/VR is more than unlike-in-quality.

Maybe the only thing that gets me there is persistence, but the rub of that is that its requirements all require bulky physical configuration and/or isolation.

At its worst, earliest form, a brick cell phone was still portable, and didn't isolate the user from the world around them.

VR/AR is more unlike-in-capability than phones. If the hardware becomes a pair of glasses that have no friction in putting on, then it can engulf capabilities of TV, phone, PC, anything that has a screen. And unlike part would be to project stuff on real world, be completely in a virtual world, etc.

I just think that making the hardware is the toughest challenge. Zuck might be underestimating hardware progress.

If he is right, godspeed, future would be amazing. If not, we'll have net positive experiment out of this and it will accelerate AR/VR hardware dev.

> I have a very uphill battle convincing myself AR/VR is more than unlike-in-quality.

Have you actually tried it? VR in particular demos poorly for people where most of their experience with VR is Google Cardboard. Even VR systems from 5 years ago are dated. You have to try it, especially some notable non-gaming apps

Yes. I own several systems and am not susceptible to motion sickness.

Which ones because honestly I have a very hard time believing that based on your comment

The current VR headsets seem more akin to the car phones or those huge brick mobile phones of the 70s/80s rather than smartphones. Lots of people saw its potential. But it was not ready for the masses.

and how long did iphones come after those? 20+ years

quests are/was outselling xbox

They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.

--Carl Sagan

Indeed. I don’t consider it a flaw to push for something innovative and have it flop. That’s just the cost of being innovative and taking risks.

I could see criticizing Mark for betting the entire farm on it.