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Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by eru on Thursday November 03, 2022 @12:14AM (#33446907)
I'm not quite sure why everyone always warns about high debt levels, but nobody seems to care about high equity levels?

Both debt and equity are just different points on a spectrum that you mix-and-match from to can structure the liabilities side of your balance sheet.

However as the linked article points out, the big difference here is not debt vs equity, but that governments step in with tax payer money to guarantee the value of debt in a way that they don't do for equity.

Those government guarantees are the real deal, whether that's an explicit guarantee or the implicit 'too big too fail'.

Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by jkhdigital on Thursday November 03, 2022 @12:33AM (#33447027)
In the abstract, you're not wrong that the managers of a business have a lot of freedom to tweak debt/equity ratio to fund their operations and capex. But from the perspective of an investor, debt and equity are as different as night and day. If nobody wants your equity then you don't have a lot of room to adjust the ratio.

High debt means high leverage. Low debt means low leverage. Whatever you are calling "high equity" is just low debt, because (as you said yourself) they have a direct inverse relationship. Unless I'm missing something here...

Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by eru on Thursday November 03, 2022 @01:12AM (#33447276)
Well, as an investor I don't need to care too much about the debt to equity the company either. In the abstract, I can just buy all the liabilities of the company in question and adjust the leverage of my portfolio by mixing in risk-free assets or borrowing myself.

> If nobody wants your equity then you don't have a lot of room to adjust the ratio.

If literally nobody wants your equity, its price would be 0. I assume you are talking about your equity having a low price instead?

You can still take on debt to buy back shares (or pay a dividend) to lower your outstanding equity. Or you can issue shares to pay back debt.

Or you can use retain profits to pay back debt, lower both the absolute amount of equity and debt.

All of these moves are possible when your share price is low.

Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by jkhdigital on Thursday November 03, 2022 @01:33AM (#33447394)
Sure. There is indeed quite a bit of flexibility in adjusting the leverage of a business, assuming that it is still a going concern.

So was your comment about "high equity" just about leverage? Like, everyone worries about high leverage but no one seems to care about low leverage (which could be an inefficient capital allocation)? It's just an unorthodox way to put it, that phrase

Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by eru on Thursday November 03, 2022 @06:57AM (#33449286)
People seem to be worried about the total amount of debt.

At most they compare debt to GDP. You almost never hear these panic pieces talk about debt vs equity.

Btw, if people are worried about debt, the first thing we should do is put equity financing on the same footing as debt financing.

As it stands, companies largely service their debt with pre-tax money but pay for their cost of equity with post-tax money.

Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by jjeaff on Thursday November 03, 2022 @12:26AM (#33446986)
I'm confused, you don't go bankrupt from too much equity. There isn't an existential threat with too much equity. Why do we need to worry about it?
Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by eru on Thursday November 03, 2022 @12:39AM (#33447071)
Well, what is bankruptcy?

Bankruptcy just means that the company's old equity is 'deleted' and that what used to be debt gets turned into equity.

Nothing about how the company operates has to change. In principle, workers can still make the same products, customers can still buy those same products etc.

Airlines are the prime example of this: airlines go bankrupt all the time, you could almost say it's part of their business model.

Of course, the process of bankruptcy also often comes with big changes in how the company operates. But you also often see those big changes and turnarounds without any bankruptcy.

(Those big changes can even include shutting the company down.)

Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by jjeaff on Friday November 04, 2022 @01:50PM (#33470944)
Yes, but equity holders don't have mandatory service payments. So they can't force a bankruptcy. Too much and it might make it a poor investment, but it doesn't affect cash flow. It's not a public emergency if a big company becomes too diluted.
Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by jbay808 on Thursday November 03, 2022 @12:57AM (#33447191)
> nobody seems to care about high equity levels?

By "high equity levels" do you mean high levels of government ownership of corporations? Or do you mean high equity valuations?

If the latter, there are certainly some who voice concerns. For example John Hussman:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/category/comment/

Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by eru on Thursday November 03, 2022 @01:06AM (#33447250)
> By "high equity levels" do you mean high levels of government ownership of corporations?

I was leaving that a bit ambiguous, because concerns about high debt levels are also often ambiguous about government debt vs private debt.

However the equivalent of government debt is not government ownership in corporations, but people owning equity stakes in governments.

(State owned companies are a problem, but not the problem I wanted to talk about in this comment.)

Yes, there are some people voicing concern about stock prices.

Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by jbay808 on Thursday November 03, 2022 @01:52AM (#33447503)
What does a high level of "people owning an equity stake in government" mean? Universal voting rights? UBI 'dividends'?
Re:Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom by eru on Thursday November 03, 2022 @06:58AM (#33449292)
I don't know. Perhaps that, or perhaps tax farming?

I just know that it's not government owning other entity's equity.