I actually agree with you for the most part, but I think the digital experience is (or at least can be) even closer than you realise.

I have a digital piano that does a very good impersonation of half-pedalling, and when you press down the pedal you can hear the whole soundboard gently vibrate. It was high-end when I bought it over ten years ago. Sound quality has improved a lot since then, touch and feel is at least as good.

But, in addition to the sound (like half-pedaling), I'm talking about the actual feel. A digital piano's pedal will always feel like a buttery spring. On an acoustic, you can feel the vibrations, the felts, the engagement of the dampers, etc. in your foot.

It's really minor, because a great pianist can do fine with these very good digitals, but you lose a sense of "one-ness" with the instrument.

Of course, if they do it’ll be at a ridiculous premium price point where you might as well save money by just getting a real piano instead. :)

I describe myself as playing "keyboard" and call my instrument a "keyboard", even though by your definitions it wouldn't be one -- I don't think that's how the word is usually used? I think most people, including most musicians, would consider a digital piano a kind of keyboard.

My point was that "keyboards" include a much broader class of electronic instruments than strictly what the set of "digital pianos" includes, like synthesizers, MIDI controllers, semi- or unweighted electric "pianos", etc. Unfortunately, to the beginner, they all look the same.

There are some fine semi-weighted keybeds out there, like on the Nord Electro.

We ought remember that replicating the characteristics of an acoustic piano with a digital instrument is difficult, and was basically impossible 30 years ago. Modern sampling keyboards have hundreds of MB of memory for samples (and can play back and mix them with no audible latency).

You'd strengthen your point by putting your entering conditions ("for classical piano") up front.

Keyboards of all sorts are used in all manner of places. Jazz especially loves the rounder tones offered by "e-pianos". There are even some famous synthesized classical pieces. So they're undoubtedly useful instruments, just seemingly avoided in most conventional approaches to learning to play piano.

If we set a budget to $1k, then sure, I agree that you'll have a hard time finding a decent acoustic. I'm not sure, though, why we should assume $1k is an average, and even if it is, why we ought to use that as a benchmark for characterizing acoustic pianos.

Buying a good quality grand piano is affordable to middle-class families. It's not unlike buying a car: you can get them new or used, financed or paid in cash. So somebody, who at least has middle-class financial means, who is serious about learning piano, absolutely has the opportunity to get an instrument they can connect with (in the specific sense I described).

It's not cheap, and to most families it certainly couldn't/wouldn't be a frivolous purchase. But that's just how it is with a decent acoustic instruments. Digital pianos are much more affordable and offer a lot of practical benefits, but they're still significantly different from an acoustic piano in every dimension.

I don't know if even having the space for it is affordable to middle-class families.

It's gonna be hard to tell some parents why they should dump over $1k on some fancy piano when they can spend way less than that on a digital piano.

But IMO fixing an action or motherboard on a 10+ year digital is much scarier than fixing a purely mechanical acoustic. A well looked after acoustic has a reasonably forgiving depreciation curve if it's a decent brand too whereas I picked up top-end digital for 45% discount even though it was less than a year old

You can’t justify acoustic economically unless you make your income from the piano. Aesthetically acoustic is the clear winner, but you’d better have your pocketbook well stocked.

Personally I prefer electronic because I’m not a trained pianist and I appreciate the versatility of something like a Korg Kronos over the undeniable physicality of a concert grand. And I splurged a bit on my audio setup so I can still get some good body resonance going when I don’t mind potentially annoying the neighbors.

At 2% inflation, a series of 5 purchases (one every 10 years) totals to 27815 GBP

On Yamaha today, that will get you a 6'1" C3X.

I don't have great knowledge of the market for second hand midrange Yamaha grands but if it's well looked after (which as discussed costs money) the value of the piano will not be zero.

A spot check on gumtree[0] suggests that a well maintained 30-year old 6'1" Yamaha C3 is worth 50% of today's C3X. I'd be more confident that a well looked after Steinway B would command a decent price - especially if you picked up a decent 5-10 year old to avoid the premium associated with newness then sold it a few decades later.

So for me, I don't agree that the economics of buying a grand piano are as clear cut as your post makes out but I agree that periodic upgrading of a DP is definitely viable and gives you more flexibility.

I used to be really fascinated by antique pianos (Bechstein and Steinway) and I was really impressed how gradual their value decline was, but also how nice they can sound. A well looked after 1900s Bechstein sounds so beautiful.

[0] https://www.gumtree.com/p/pianos/yamaha-c3-conservatory-gran...

Given that it is allegedly from a conservatory I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt that the piano will be well used but also well maintained.

I’m pretty comfortable in my belief here. Certainly the immediate winner is the DP, and you may not stick with it long enough, or even live long enough, to win the long term bet you are making here.

Back to my original point — I’m not saying the acoustic isn’t worth it, simply that you should not analyze it from a purely economic point of view, because it is a losing argument from that perspective.

I also can accept your reasoning and definitely agree re. time value of money (and the value of optionality) but I was surprised actually see the numbers play out the way they did.

As for me, the much bigger problem is finding a place big enough to house a bloody grand piano!

I wonder if there would be a market for that level of emulation.

For example in the car sim scene the higher end braking pedals measure not just the movement but also with how much force it is pressed (force needed for brake pedal is nonlinear with pedal movement), so you have more control over it (easier to control force of pressing compared to absolute movement of the pedal)

> An acoustic grand also has more opportunities to change and shape the color of the tone. A technician can make the piano warmer or brighter for example.

Yeah nah. Digital pianos often have more than one sound to choose from, let alone more advanced synths. If we're talking sheer variety of sound digital has no limits, even if your particular device does there is always option of connecting it to PC (althought no doubt archaic MIDI gonna lose some of the detail there)