Re:Andrej Karpathy: Why Tesla Removed Radar and Ultrasonic S...
by BurningFrog on Sunday October 30, 2022 @07:53PM
(#33400345)
> a large portion of accidents are single vehicle accidents where the driver was at fault for the crash. Usually due to speeding, alcohol, youth, or a combination of them.
Also plenty of suicides in that group, which confuses the stats.
We really need SDCs to have fewer accidents than human drivers, excluding the suicides.
Re:Andrej Karpathy: Why Tesla Removed Radar and Ultrasonic S...
by oldgradstudent on Sunday October 30, 2022 @09:52PM
(#33401138)
> but my expectation is around 20% of fatal accidents can in some way be prevented by automation.
Assuming, of course, that automation does not introduce its own failure modes.
That's a strong assumption.
They also have better failure modes and a really sophisticated error management system. They are susceptible to optical illusions, though.
> It is not sufficient if, in aggregate, self-driving cars have fewer accidents.
This is the incorrect analysis anyways. This was always going to be true because a large portion of accidents are single vehicle accidents where the driver was at fault for the crash. Usually due to speeding, alcohol, youth, or a combination of them.
If they didn't have fewer accidents then something is very very wrong with the entire idea. Which may very well be the outcome here. Looking at multi-vehicle accidents where there was no fault of the driver who died, it's not clear that an automated system driving the car would have saved them.
Roads are built right next to cliffs and bodies of water. Semi trucks can completely destroy your vehicle in an instant. Large accidents on snowy or foggy highways happen. Drunk drivers exist and sometimes literally do come out of nowhere, a pickup truck moving at 60mph has enough energy to knock a firetruck onto it's side if you hit it side-on and freeway ramps dump out right onto residential streets. Parts fail, floormats get stuck, people don't wear their seatbelts, and you can get a license to ride on a motorcycle if you want.
It's a guess based on the research I've done, but my expectation is around 20% of fatal accidents can in some way be prevented by automation. You'd honestly prevent more fatalities by putting an ignition interlock on everyone's vehicle or building real barriers between traffic and pedestrians.