It is difficult to predict markets fast, reliable and precisely enough to reliably beat them. It is certainly possible to predict markets and be good at it, people do it all the time

They have a lot of variability. It's the difference between predicting the weather and predicting the average weather (that is, the climate).

It's easy to predict the markets, just as it's easy to predict the weather.

I predict it will rain sometime in the next month at my address. I also predict that it will freeze hard in the same time period.

This is a useful prediction, given that I will be winterizing my yard today.

Making a prediction better than an expert's is hard. Useful predictions are often easy.

If my father in law decides to plant 1000 acres in wheat next year, he is making a prediction about the markets. Given the situation in Ukraine and with global climate, wheat prices are one of the most difficult to predict precisely. But he is a low cost producer compared to many, so he knows he is likely to make a profit whether the price is high or low. A precise prediction would be nice, but producers everywhere operate with imprecise but useful predictions all the time.

«Situation» in Ukraine is at mid-WWII level (1942), so plant the wheat. It will be tough to produce and export wheat in Ukraine for next two years at least.

If the war in Ukraine continues, oilseeds are the most profitable planting choice.