The former is a fake metric. Measuring changes in the monetary base [1] is a thing. But it’s seldom accurately reflected in a single figure.
Also, the 2.6% is real GDP growth. Current-dollar growth was 6.7% annualised [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_base
[2] https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-q...
I am using M2 money supply. Basically trying to proxy how much money more we printed this past few years.
Source: https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/
It makes no sense to use a November 2020 rate of change in M2 to adjust a Q3 2022 real GDP estimate. GDP is a production metric. An output of the real economy. M2 is a monetary metric. An input into the financial system. To the degree their relationship has meaning, it’s as a rough measure of financialisation [1].
[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FM.LBL.BMNY.GD.ZS?most_...
/s
https://collabfund.com/blog/the-fed-isnt-printing-as-much-mo...
Also money printing isn't necessarily inflationary if the money stays as bank reserves. Unless... The Fed buys treasuries and the government dumps the money on the economy.
I think money supply inflation reflects more the reality and explain the current bearish sentiment.