Russia using a nuke in Ukraine doesn’t even make any sense. What would it accomplish? The Ukrainian forces are too scattered for this to be effective. Would it scare the West into backing down? It would certainly scare a lot of people, but Putin knows that the West will not be scared into submission. If it’s done as a scare tactic, then it’s terrorism, and negotiating with terrorists is off the table.

The only way I can see Russia going nuclear is if the West becomes directly involved in the conflict, Putin sees it as the existential end of Russia, and decides to take the murder-suicide route. Let’s hope it never gets to that point.