The gas storage is >95% full and it looks like households are reducing their gas usage significantly so far. So the outlook for this winter is not too bad. Unless something really big happens that changes this the situation is nowhere even close to being bad enough to cause any change in Germany's policy regarding Russia and Ukraine.

95% full is enough to last two months in an averagely bad winter.

That might stretch to 4 if you ration.

I hear this a lot, but my understanding is that shipping LNG across oceans is very inefficient and would require far more terminals to receive LNG than exist. My impression is it's not even close to a 1:1 substitution.

Nowhere near. Right now that's more of a Germany problem than a USA problem though.

America would like Europe to build more LNG terminals to accomodate its growing gas surplus but first investors will want to feel confident that that tap wont be switched on again soon coz LNG wont ever be able to compete with a pipeline.