Why? you either have a BATNA or you don't.

Either you have a winning poker hand or you don't - oh wait: bluffing is a thing that people sometimes have to do - even in salary negotiations.

It doesn’t even have to be bluffing. Salary for a new position should be decided based on how much value you can bring to the position, and how much each party is willing to accept. Previous history is the most irrelevant part of the process.

I wish more engineers understood this

If I started hunting for a new job now, I wouldn't take $current*1.05f, I'd go for $MARKET_RATE

That's the only number that really matters here when push comes to shove. It doesn't matter how good you are, no local companies are going to pay you $500k/year to act as an individual contributor in Idaho or Tokyo, because the market rate is ~$90k. On the plus side, if you get an offer for a principal FAANG engineer position in the SF Bay, you can negotiate up to $500ish even if your last job was paying $90k.

You might have a shot about bluffing with competing offers/opportunities.