How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments? Here's the data

Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by mywittyname on Thursday October 13, 2022 @05:50PM (#33196917)

I mean, if you're going to stick to the two-consecutive quarters definition, then you would be saying that we were in a recession, and are now out of one. Third quarter GDP estimates stand at 1.9% growth.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by zeroonetwothree on Thursday October 13, 2022 @06:31PM (#33197338)

GDPNow has it at 2.9% even

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[dead]

Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by mywittyname on Friday October 14, 2022 @12:44PM (#33205909)

Reported as of current monthly figures. Estimates are even higher.

Keep in mind that the "two consecutive quarters" is just snapshots of the monthly data at 3 month marks. They get revised over time.

It's completely possible that data from Q2 will be revised upwards and there won't be two consecutive quarters of negative GPD in the future. The Q2 data has already been revised upwards once.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by pishpash on Thursday October 13, 2022 @09:08PM (#33198524)

That's too noisy given inflation is 6.6%.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by RC_ITR on Thursday October 13, 2022 @09:18PM (#33198578)

Real GDP

We've only recently seen nominal GDP declines in 2008 and 2020.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by pishpash on Thursday October 13, 2022 @11:08PM (#33199198)

I know it's real GDP. I'm saying this number is noisier when inflation is high because you only ever measure nominal GDP and then deflate.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by RC_ITR on Thursday October 13, 2022 @11:48PM (#33199437)

Well what don't you believe because you're using 6.6% inflation as your reason for skepticism, but that's what GDP is deflated by?

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by lmm on Friday October 14, 2022 @02:02AM (#33200129)

They believe the error bar on that inflation number must be pretty wide, presumably.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by RC_ITR on Friday October 14, 2022 @02:51AM (#33200363)

But by that logic, error bars increased because the number went up? Idk if that’s how statistics works.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by ivalm on Friday October 14, 2022 @03:28AM (#33200585)

Errors in counting generally go as square root of the count. So yes, as number goes up so does the deviation.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by RC_ITR on Friday October 14, 2022 @03:35AM (#33200645)

Inflation readings being higher have nothing to do with a higher count.

Exact same amount of data points for inputs as 2% inflation.

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Re:How much have layoffs affected engineers vs. other depart... by ivalm on Friday October 14, 2022 @09:57PM (#33210879)

It’s not about the amount of measurement points, uncertainties in dollar amounts tend to scale as sqrt. When you error propagate that you see that inflation uncertainty scales with inflation.

Very simple model

Inflation=v1/v2

D(inflation)=sqrt((D(v1)/v2)^2+(v1/v2^2 D(v2))^2)

Suppose

D(v1)=c sqrt(v1)

D(v2)=c sqrt(v2)

D(inflation)=c sqrt(v1/v2^2+v1^2/v2^3)= c sqrt(inflation+inflation^2)/sqrt(v2)

So can be seen that the leading term for uncertainty in inflation is linear with inflation.

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