I started using Arch a little over a year ago. It was my first Linux distro so I didn't have much experience, and I cant recall regretting it for a single moment during the first couple of weeks. Sure, there's a lot of stuff to set up and configure manually, but I found that to be a good thing. Getting Arch up and running with everything you need is sort of a crash course in Linux. The docs are very good so I don't think the average HN reader will struggle.
Btw, I need to thank you Derek: When I was trying to decide which distro to use I considered Arch because I heard Zed was using it at the time. Then I read the interview with you on thegeektalk.com and decided to give it a shot because of your recommendation, and I've loved it from day one. So thanks!
For someone new to Linux, I'd still recommend Ubuntu. If it's too cluttered, try changing the window manager or use Lubuntu.
I only came to Arch Linux after 10+ years of trying others, and it was the right thing for me, but I don't recommend it to others unless they're already quite experienced with Linux. (But for those who are, it's wonderful.)
Until then, stick with Ubuntu, Xubuntu, Lubuntu, etc - as you'll get the most support there.