Not sure what you mean here. It is good to point out the investment in the tech, but that's been made already. There are people who know how to do it, and some of them are going to be leaving Figma soon. Even if not, the very fact that it's out there in the world means it'll be a lot easier for someone else to build the second time around. I know that Penpot is a very different scale and level of polish than Figma, but it is an example of someone saying "we believe we can do what they did, without the budget," and being at least somewhat successful already.

And in terms of chasing another product's smoke, I think the problem a lot of people have with the Adobe acquisition is that Adobe has no track record of innovation in the software design space. Rather, their history is of buying innovative design companies and ruining them. If they've learned their lessons, if their product culture has changed, then maybe that won't happen this time. My fear (as a designer who uses Figma) is that they bought Figma precisely because they can't innovate on their own, and that they'll spread their bad culture to Figma rather than the other way around.