Re:Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
by Symmetry on Tuesday September 27, 2022 @03:53PM
(#33000285)
The problem is that the technical resources required to pull something like this off don't seem to be all that high. You need a ton or so of explosives which is the hard part, a delayed fuse, a water proof container, a camera and light that work underwater, and some winches to deploy the camera and then the bomb. It wouldn't surprise me if almost every nation in Europe could pull this off if they put their minds to it, and a wide variety of sub-national groups as well.
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Re:Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
by ARandomerDude on Tuesday September 27, 2022 @06:13PM
(#33001803)
You also need to be able to operate undetected with multiple navies patrolling the area. That is the hard part, it seems to me.
A fishing boat would be a good cover. They're going to be wandering around the Baltic and are expected to have the necessary winches on deck.
I think the real reason states don't typically do this is that we rely on undersea cables and pipelines for a lot so it is not a good idea to throw stones from glass houses.
What kind of sub-national groups in relevant countries do you have in mind?
Otherwise: Agreed.
There are lots of options, mostly intelligence agencies of various sorts taking matters into their own hands. Maybe a European or American group which doesn't want Europe bought off or a Russia group which wants total victory rather than a peaceful compromise. One could imagine an ecoterrorist group wanting to do this in the confusion of the war but the timing so soon after Russia's mobilization makes it look like the explosions are related so probably not that.
The Libyans from Back to the Future?
GreenWar: a hypothetical sibling of GreenPeace. Of course I don't actually believe this.
However, considering the war and today's sabotage purely from a global warming perspective, it could be net positive in the long run. Accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels.
I wonder if the sheer amount of methane dumped into the atmosphere from the damaged pipelines would be an acceptable cost for the hypothetical GreenWar? I couldn't see it, myself. The pipes weren't empty, and thats a lot of quite bad greenhouse gas now making things worse.
It's a tricky calculation for sure. Depends on the likelihood and duration of those pipelines ever being used again, and the take-up of alternate, renewable energy sources - or just doing without.