Re:Dear Chess World
by boole1854 on Monday September 26, 2022 @05:45PM
(#32988956)
While interesting, this does not seem very convincing to me. They successfully show that Niemann was playing many games with a high percentage of "engine perfect" moves, but they do not do enough to show that this is inconsistent with what top players usually do. A whole distribution of scores is shown for Niemann but only limited summary statistics are shown for other top players. A proper comparison would involve showing the same type of data for both.
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Re:Dear Chess World
by VanillaCafe on Monday September 26, 2022 @06:07PM
(#32989209)
> They successfully show that Niemann was playing many games with a high percentage of "engine perfect" moves, but they do not do enough to show that this is inconsistent with what top players usually do.
I thought the video very much did make that case. A single known cheating game had a 98% correlation (Sebastien Feller Paris 2010), other GMs have generally at most 75% average correlation. The analysis had more than half a dozen games with Niemann at 100% correlation. If that's cherry picking, it seems like there are a lot of cherries to pick.
Yah and Hikaru was able to find games of his that were 100% too, fairly quickly: https://clips.twitch.tv/FaintCuteKumquatPhilosoraptor-hDvbAj...
Well she shows 6+ games where he has 100% correlation with the engine. What are the chances?
> What are the chances?
We don't know! That's why this is an incomplete analysis. A comparison against other players of his caliber would answer that question.
Hikaru tried to answer just that:
Yes, that's the question that I wish she had tried to answer. What are the chances? Without checking for that pattern by other 2600+ GMs, we don't know the answer.
Hikaru, who ranges from high 2700s to 2800s, said only one of his games is at 100%, which was his best game. Hans having multiple 100% is suspicious.
How long was the engine run for those cases? Does the engine output change if you double or halve the depth?
100% correlation to an output that can be tuned doesn't seem that exciting
Re:Dear Chess World
by johncessna on Monday September 26, 2022 @06:22PM
(#32989379)
And then explains the odds, to both this one and the parent's question
Re:Dear Chess World
by glumreaper on Tuesday September 27, 2022 @10:26AM
(#32995625)
OMG look at the Y axis scale of the graphs. Everyone else is 0-1000+ (often 0-2000), Magnus Carlsen's graph scale is 0-200.
Yeah, because Carlsen's is only a sample of 426 games
The first 4 are the most interesting, having same sample size of 4000. But across the board players tend to have little distinction between choosing moves between 0.0 & 0.1, except one player