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Re:The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment by PaulDavisThe1st on Sunday September 25, 2022 @03:51PM (#32975324)
Unfortunate (for your case) that you cited the NBER. Their definition of a recession begins as follows:

> Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion?

A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.

https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business...

By that definition, even Forbes agrees that we are not yet in a recession.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/are-we-in-a-recessi...

Re:The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment by pclmulqdq on Sunday September 25, 2022 @04:14PM (#32975600)
That is the NBER's definition, which is inside the US. I said originally that the definition *outside of the US* (and outside of the current time - since the NBER has de facto followed the global definition until 2 months ago) is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The only reason the definition of "recession" is such a hot button issue in the US is that it looks bad for a political party to preside over a recession. They happen. At least 4 of the last 6 presidents presided over one. Most of them aren't that bad. It's fine to admit that the US economy has receded over the last 6 months, which it demonstrably has.

EDIT: The NBER, by the way, uses many metrics to declare recessions, and they particularly overweight employment and payroll metrics. The US is currently doing very well by those measures, despite the obvious weakness in the economy. I am assuming the NBER also undervalues the effects of inflation because they don't know what to do about it. That is why most of the world uses an objective definition based on GDP growth.

Re:The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment by PaulDavisThe1st on Sunday September 25, 2022 @05:36PM (#32976541)
You literally said:

> The NBER has never failed to call a recession on 2 quarters of negative growth in the past,

However, thus far, despite two quarters of GDP decline, they have not (and from their own definition, it is clear why they have not).

Business Insider believes the state of the job market to be the primary reason why.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economy-nber...

> The NBER, by the way, uses many metrics to declare recessions, and they particularly overweight employment and payroll metrics

You may consider it overweighted, my point was merely that the use of a single metric is mostly a feature of pundits and not civic institutions like NBER, who you mentioned as arbiters of being-in-receession.