> The NBER, by the way, uses many metrics to declare recessions, and they particularly overweight employment and payroll metrics
You may consider it overweighted, my point was merely that the use of a single metric is mostly a feature of pundits and not civic institutions like NBER, who you mentioned as arbiters of being-in-receession.
> The NBER has never failed to call a recession on 2 quarters of negative growth in the past,
However, thus far, despite two quarters of GDP decline, they have not (and from their own definition, it is clear why they have not).
Business Insider believes the state of the job market to be the primary reason why.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economy-nber...
> The NBER, by the way, uses many metrics to declare recessions, and they particularly overweight employment and payroll metrics
You may consider it overweighted, my point was merely that the use of a single metric is mostly a feature of pundits and not civic institutions like NBER, who you mentioned as arbiters of being-in-receession.